Monday, August 7, 2006
Lopez Obrador Raises the Stakes But Loses the Bet
By Carlos Luken
Mexico’s
leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), who is currently contesting his defeat by National Action
Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon before Mexico’s Federal Electoral Tribunal (TRIFE), during his July 30 protest
rally called for his followers to raise the stakes with a “permanent assembly.”
The
permanent assembly is a plan to inhabit 47 encampments in different areas of Mexico City, in order to “peacefully pressure”
electoral authorities to favor AMLO’s adamant proposal for a vote-by-vote recount in the hopes of reversing his slim
defeat.
The
hastily organized gatherings immediately turned into blockades of most of Mexico City’s major thoroughfares (which are
usually clogged anyway), and by the following Monday the city had been thrown into one it’s worse traffic congestions
ever. Automobiles were jammed for hours and public transportation was ineffective, creating chaos for day laborers, office
workers and professionals. The barricades also created economic crises, as area businesses, banks, hotels and other establishments
saw their trade decline to lows that threaten their very existence. Civil censure and public outcries were almost instantaneous
and unanimous.
In
this city were residents are no strangers to major traffic jams due to protests, many of AMLO’s supporters and most
political analysts are asking why? How is it possible for Lopez Obrador to make such a reckless decision that is certain to
antagonize a huge part of the city’s population in the heart of the PRD’s power base?
Some
observers consider the answer simple. They feel that Lopez Obrador’s sense of self has gotten the better of him, and
that he has fallen back to relying on the advice of his opportunistic political advisors. Curiously the strangulation of Mexico’s
streets made possible what no political party or politician could do – it unified a highly polarized society and even
prompted condemnation publications from diverse communities, including a particular damaging one signed by many leftist intellectuals
who had formerly supported AMLO.
This
ill-advised PR disaster also shifted national attention from much-maligned electoral authorities and centered it on AMLO’s
recklessness and capability to run the country. Polls taken before the permanent assembly were already showing supporters
abandoning their candidate due to his inflexible demands and bullying tactics.
But ironically the
most damaged organization in this new debacle is again the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD). Having been surpassed by ex-PRI
outsiders (Porfirio Muņoz Ledo, Manuel Camacho Solis, Ricardo Monreal, Marcelo Ebrard and Lopez Obrador), the party’s
genuine hierarchy set aside its ideology and half-heartedly supported AMLO to an unopposed nomination that was made easier
by his populist proposals.
Another
victim is the PRD led Mexico City government currently headed by Alejandro Encinas, AMLO’s handpicked successor. The acting mayor is being strongly criticized for adopting a position favoring protesters
against the general public and businesspersons, and many have questioned his unreasonable position remarking that most “tent
encampments” are either alone or occupied by small groups of people. The mayor’s attitude has caused many PRD
constituents to question their future loyalties.
PRD
loyalists watched with dismay as their causes were neglected during the vitriolic campaign, as Lopez Obrador did more to disqualify
his opponents than to enter into a debate over specific political and ideological issues. Its reported that followers are
now shocked as they witness their political institution being held hostage by a power-hungry group, which is using it as a
shield in order to authenticate mass mobilizations that are doing more to alienate than advance the party.
However
Lopez Obrador is apparently committed to the turmoil, refusing to budge from his position. This week protesters escalated
their demonstrations by shutting down Mexico City’s stock exchange, and they are threatening to occupy the airport and
block highways.
Many
fear that AMLO’s approach has pushed him into a corner, and that he is looking to provoke an aggressive reaction from
the federal government in order to extricate himself. But federal officials have managed to disentangle the government from
intervening.
AMLO
has also hurt his cause by injudiciously causing a public outcry of disappointment that may force the courts to advance their
verdict that is likely to favor Calderon.
Up to now
it appears that Lopez Obrador raised the ante and lost his bet. In a week his image has devalued considerably. His tactics
have again boomeranged and the PRD has lost a hefty part of its constituency. Given time the PRD may rebuild and galvanize
its congressional position, but unless something unforeseen happens it would appear that AMLO could have a harder time making
a comeback.
Carlos Luken, a MexiData.info columnist, is
a Mexico-based businessman and consultant. He can be reached via e-mail at ilcmex@yahoo.com.
