Monday, July 17, 2006

 

Maybe Mexican Contests Should Go A Second Round

 

By Allan Wall

 

The Mexican post-election controversy continues, with Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) of the PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution) continuing to dispute the narrow victory of Felipe Calderon of the PAN (National Action Party).

 

Each man is following a different strategy.

 

Calderon is acting presidential, making presidential-type statements and planning a transition to power.

 

AMLO is contesting the election with any charge available, even to the point of slandering his own campaign workers, some of whom he charged with selling out to help the other side.

 

Lopez Obrador is really in his element.  After all, he first came to national attention in 1995, contesting a 1994 Tabasco gubernatorial election against none other than Roberto Madrazo.  Now, in 2006, AMLO is contesting another election – and this is the biggest game in Mexico.  I get the impression that Lopez Obrador thrives on it – that he actually enjoys being in the fray, fighting for what he claims is a stolen victory.

 

It must be admitted that this election was very close. It could have gone either way.  If 41 million voters go to the polls and the difference between the first and second place candidates are 243,934 votes, that’s a squeaker.

So Calderon’s victory was hardly overwhelming. Getting 35 percent of the vote is not overwhelming, especially when you considered only about 60 percent of the Mexican electorate voted.

And such a close election was bound to be contested.

 

As well, if you look at a map the election was also divisive regionally, with the north going for Calderon and the south for Lopez Obrador.  This shows us a country geographically and culturally divided.

 

Eventually the Mexican electoral court must officially declare this election, and I predict they will award it to Calderon.

But with regards to future elections, Mexican lawmakers might consider a change in Mexican electoral law that would allow for a second round in a presidential election, to allow the winning candidate to get a majority.  As a matter of fact, before Election Day President Vicente Fox even made this suggestion.

In this election, the winner Felipe Calderon had 35.88 percent of the vote, while Lopez Obrador had 35.31 percent.  That is very close, and it could have gone either way.

 

But if the July 2nd Mexican election had been a two-round system, this would have been round one.  For round two, all the candidates except Calderon and Lopez Obrador would have been eliminated.  Then the voters would only choose between those two.

 

There are a number of countries that utilize this system.  France for example.

 

In the 2002 election, there was a whopping slate of 16 presidential candidates in the first round of the French presidential election.  The first place candidate (Chirac) received 19.88 percent of the vote, and the second place candidate (LePen) received 16.86 percent of the vote.  So in the second round  (which was only two weeks later), the only candidates were Chirac and LePen.  (Chirac won).

 

In Latin America, both Chile and Peru recently held second-round elections to obtain majorities.

 

The advantage of a second round would be that the electorate would have only two candidates to consider, the winning candidate would receive a majority of the votes cast, and thus enjoy greater legitimacy.

 

What’s a disadvantage?

 

The expense involved.  It would simply cost more money.

 

But it wouldn’t have to be an incredible amount of money.  For one thing, there’s no reason to wait a long time for the second round, after all, the public already knows the candidates.  As in France, they could have the second round just two weeks later.

 

Besides the expense, there’s a danger in having elections last too long. After a certain point, people just get burned out.

 

But a two-round Mexican election could be held using the same amount of time as this year’s election. You could just cut two weeks off the length of the campaign time and use it for the second round.

 

And when it’s all over, you have a winner with a majority.

 

When the next president and congress take office, it’s something they might do well to consider.

 

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Allan Wall, a MexiData.info columnist, recently returned from a tour of duty in Iraq.  He currently resides in Mexico, where he has lived since 1991. He can be reached via e-mail at allan39@prodigy.net.mx.