By Enrique Andrade González

Based on a proposal by Roberto Madrazo, the presidential candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), leaders of Mexico’s political parties signed a “Democratic Fairness, Legality and Governess Accord” during a ceremony overseen by the head of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE). More popularly called the “civility pact,” among other things the accord commits to noninterference by federal, state or municipal governments in favor of or in opposition to a candidate; acceptance and respect of election results endorsed by electoral officials; and the completion of a random sample audit of Mexico’s registry of voters.

In order for the commitment to be truly valid however, it also needs to be signed by President Vicente Fox. In part so that he will not declare a particular candidate the winner of the July 2 presidential election until after electoral officials have done so. This in addition to insuring that the federal government will not intervene in favor of his party’s candidate – a requisite that besides already being in Mexico’s election’s law is now part of a political obligation.

Recent accusations of corruption and influence peddling have sullied the reputation for honesty of National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderón, and according to polls in Milenio and by Televisa they have cost him three points. All of which means, considering survey results that include Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), by July the race may well be a dead heat.

There are justifiable reasons for questioning the trustworthiness of the voters’ registry. It has been verified that the registry was not regularly undated, and remaining in the database are names of voters who have died, or those who have emigrated to the United States. A total number of voters calculated at 6 to 7 million who will not cast ballots.

And the fear is that these statistical names will be used to alter the initial reports on votes cast, which is why an audit has been called for of the registry.

Due to the incipient democrat culture of Mexico, after 71 years of rule by a party of the state, no one knows if society is prepared to accept the election results? In 2000 this problem did not exist, precisely due to the institutionalism and discipline of the PRI. And because of a difference of over 4 million votes – but this time around there will not be such a spread.

As important, today’s campaign strategies are antagonizing the social atmosphere, pitting the rich against the poor and good against evil every time a campaign spot is aired.

Mexico’s vote count must be believable, and not tarnished by a suspicion of fraud committed by the state. Already there are a dozen criminal investigations underway, into diversions of campaign funds and unlawful interference by public officials.

Obviously the civility pact is important to all of this, plus it could be of influence should there be those who refuse to respect the outcome of the election, and choose instead to take to the streets. Yet the civility pact is not a non-aggression accord or a cease-fire during these final two weeks of the campaign.

Too, if the personal attacks continue, with documentation supposedly leaked from the federal government or by anonymous citizens, it will provoke an atmosphere of uncertainty on Election Day. And even though political parties might accept the results, it may be hard to convey this acceptance of defeat to the followers of a candidate.

Supposedly the Fox government is not prepared to lose the election, which has been demonstrated by various actions. And AMLO will not accept defeat if the results can be questioned.

Some political analysts believe that the PRD candidate has delicate tax information that not only involves the Calderón family, but too that of Fox. This they say is why a rapprochement between the PRD and PRI is being sought, in order not to dirty the process further and to allow the election to be held in an orderly and non-manipulated manner.

In spite of the civility pact, Mexicans are concerned due to many of these factors. Which is why Fox needs to sign the accord. Too, the audit of the electoral listings is necessary, and while there is little time left before the elections a random sample of the registry that is opportune and trusted must be done.

Otherwise the first argument repudiating the election will be on the table for AMLO and his followers should Calderón win.

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Enrique Andrade, a Mexico City-based attorney and business consultant, writes a weekly column for MexiData.info. He can be reached via e-mail at enriqueag@andradep.com.