Monday, May 29, 2006
A Possible Alliance to Counter
Fox and the PAN
By
Carlos Luken
The long-standing political axiom “politics make strange bedfellows” has been taken
to its limits in Mexico.
Many political analysts and major media sources say that archrivals Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
(AMLO), from the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), and Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI),
have been pushed into a corner and they are considering joining forces due to the unexpected surge in the polls by National
Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon.
With but five weeks remaining before Mexico’s Election Day on July 2, the PAN candidate is
maintaining his lead in voter preference surveys in most professional and newspaper polls, with Calderon ahead by 39 percent
over 35 percent for Lopez Obrador, while Madrazo has consistently run last now at 22 percent voter preference.
Regional appeal will prove to be decisive. Calderon has double-digit leads in Mexico’s northern
and western states (47 percent and 53 percent respectively), with Madrazo placing second with 25 percent. Lopez Obrador leads
with a double-digit advantage over Calderon in Mexico’s heavily populated central states (47 percent to 34 percent),
with Madrazo trailing with 15 percent. AMLO and Calderon are tied in first with 34 percent in the poor southern states, and
Madrazo trails with 27 percent.
Lopez Obrador was the frontrunner for almost a year before the campaign officially started in January
with a commanding lead over all contenders. He initially reacted to Calderon’s unexpected rise by disregarding poll
results, and by reasserting his now dog-eared conspiracy theories – this time charging that the polls and surveys were
rigged.
But as Calderon’s numbers remained solid, AMLO turned up his attacks on President Vicente
Fox for the alleged high outlay of public funds in “institutional advertising,”
purportedly designed to prop up the PAN and Calderon’s public standing.
The PRI’s Madrazo has been unable to reverse his sliding poll numbers, or to extricate himself
from the third place position. Surprisingly his campaign strategy has been directed principally against AMLO, not Calderon.
It should be remembered that up until the 1980s Lopez Obrador and Madrazo were both prominent members
of the PRI in the southeastern state of Tabasco. They contended against each other for the PRI’s gubernatorial candidacy,
which Madrazo won in a litigiously contested election. After all legal avenues were lost, AMLO decided to quit the PRI and
move on to the PRD. And there has been bad blood between the two ever since.
Most political analysts now see the upcoming election as a two-man race, between Calderon and Lopez
Obrador. Apparently PRI and PRD analysts also believe this forecast, and talks have started regarding a joint advertising
campaign targeting Fox’s alleged misuse of public funds and government social programs for the PAN’s political
benefit.
This supposed arrangement has led to many rumors. Some observers contend that the pact is solely
for advertising against government intervention, whereas others suggest Madrazo will withdraw from the race in order to merge
with Lopez Obrador. The latter scheme is categorically rejected as worthless by PRD icon Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, who has removed
himself from involvement in the Lopez Obrador campaign.
The possibility of a PRD-PRI electoral alliance seems highly unlikely. Notwithstanding the Madrazo-Lopez
Obrador feud, PRD loyalists have a vilified dislike towards PRI members whom they consider corrupt. Too, the leftist PRD’s
radical wing well remembers the ruthless repression of PRI governments against their past public demonstrations.
Still, both the Madrazo and Lopez Obrador camps have cautiously denied the possibility of a political
alliance. But at the same time both have concurred in the convenience of doing a dual pronged campaign against Fox’s
expenditures.
In the meantime, Lopez Obrador managed to score a victory when the PRD convinced the Federal Electoral
Tribunal to ban three PAN campaign advertisements that AMLO saw as defamatory.
Some feel that a merger of grass root organizations from both the PRD and PRI could present a formidable
challenge to Calderon. However others believe that the image of opponents ganging up on the PAN candidate might swing uncommitted
voters in his favor.
Yet there is little possibility of either PRI or PRD leaders and strategists making any public overtures
of this nature before the final presidential candidates’ debate on June 6. In fact, some think that this might be the
last and pivotal opportunity for contenders to gang up on the frontrunner and better their own positions before the election.
Barring any major incident, the candidate’s position after the debate will most likely remain unchanged
until Election Day.
Carlos Luken,
a MexiData.info columnist, is a Mexico-based businessman and consultant. He can
be reached via e-mail at ilcmex@yahoo.com.
