Monday, February 27, 2006

 

Political Uncertainty and Populism Fears in Mexico

 

By Carlos Luken

 

Although Mexico’s electoral and campaign processes have been orderly, there is an anxiousness in the air. Most candidates, political analysts and voters liken the 2006 presidential campaign to the Winter Olympics – as fast as downhill racing and as dangerous as skating on thin ice.

 

There are far too many undefined and incontrollable variables in the “real race” among the three major political forces: the leftist alliance (“Coalition for everybody’s well-being”), grouping the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), Workers Party (PT), and Convergence Party led by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador; the “Alliance for Mexico” of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), and the Mexican Green Ecological Party (PVEM), represented by Roberto Madrazo; and the National Action Party (PAN) with Felipe Calderon, who resolved to contend unaccompanied.

 

In late February the PRI’s image was severely damaged with the surfacing of wiretapped phone conversations between Puebla Governor Mario Marin, a Madrazo ally, and textile magnate Kamel Nacif. They were rejoicing over the unlawful detention of newspaperwoman Lydia Cacho, who had uncovered a child sex ring allegedly linked to a Nacif acquaintance, all of which helped to reawaken the public memory of the PRI’s reprehensible past.

 

Madrazo, who is no stranger to controversy, won his candidacy after a conflict-ridden primary battle that ended in a divided and weakened party. As candidate he has been reluctant to disclose his financial statements, even as information about his fortune and lavish U.S. condominiums has been made public.

 

Madrazo’s image has just been dealt another blow, as Bernardo de la Garza, for a short time the PVEM presidential candidate, abruptly dumped the “Alliance for Mexico” which he called a “big mistake.”

 

Actually Madrazo’s candidacy and campaign are in shambles, and his once mighty PRI is limping last in a three-man race. Some party insiders are even discussing a replacement candidate, going so far as to propose Senator Enrique Jackson as an alternative. The PRI is waging a campaign of uncertainty, with Madrazo clearly trailing and little more than four months to go. Which means if changes are to be made the party must do so soon.

 

Following the split of De la Garza with the PRI coalition, the PAN and the campaign entourage of its candidate, Felipe Calderon, promptly began to court the PVEM member. An unpopular invitation since many of the PAN faithful reject any instances of political opportunism that might forsake party principles.

 

Calderon’s public appearances have been drawing strong crowds in recent weeks, and his TV and radio advertising campaigns have been far-reaching. Yet while he has managed to pull ahead of Madrazo, his race to overtake Lopez Obrador has stalled recently.

 

In February Calderon’s campaign momentum was also hit by friendly fire. Former Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar had accepted an invitation to visit the PAN’s headquarters, where he took the opportunity to say publicly that he hoped Felipe Calderon would win the Mexican presidency in 2006.

 

This unofficial endorsement set off a storm of protests by opposition parties, with members charging “profound transgressions, foreign intervention and support.” A touchy subject in a democratic system that has seen criticism by PAN leaders of remarks by Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez, and highly charged criticism from PRI and PRD representatives regarding comments made by U.S. Ambassador Tony Garza.

 

Protests were presented in Congress the day after Aznar’s remarks, and presidential spokesman Ruben Aguilar was even forced to express concern about the incident. An inquiry has since been opened, to assess whether or not Aznar broke Mexican electoral laws while he was in the country.

 

In the latest popularity polls leftist candidate and former Mexico City mayor Lopez Obrador managed to reverse his falling survey numbers, strengthening his lead to five points over Calderon.

 

Lopez Obrador, whose populist positions and plans have been harshly questioned by economists, businessmen and political analysts alike, seems unfazed as he manages to attract large crowds to his rallies. As well, while he publicly complains that his campaign is under funded he is spending heavily on radio advertising, and he now has a weekly television program.

 

Mexico’s political and business sectors are frankly shocked at the uncertainty the nation is facing. If a desperation vote is cast on July 2, many fear that a Lopez Obrador victory could trigger a return to populism, frivolous spending and economic isolationism.

 

Others worry that Lopez Obrador will continue with a Chavez-like intolerance of the legislative branch of government, and eliminate not only the macroeconomic improvements gained under Fox but too Mexico’s democratic advances.

 

——————————

Carlos Luken, a MexiData.info columnist, is a Mexico-based businessman and consultant.  He can be reached via e-mail at ilcmex@yahoo.com.