Monday, February 20, 2006

 

Mexican Campaign Goes from Slugfest to Sluggish

 

By Carlos Luken

 

After three weeks of lessening hoopla since the official launching of Mexico’s presidential campaign, the country and people – and oddly enough the candidates themselves, have slid into a lethargic stupor that is turning an expected donnybrook into a mild siesta.

 

Considering the name-calling and disqualifications made during the late 2005 pre-campaign stages, January’s official start was as most political observers predicted – an unruly, disruptive and unpredictable presidential campaign.

 

The ominous forecasts certainly seemed accurate as initial squeamishness between all three major parties and their candidates rekindled immediately after a brief Christmas truce, ordered by Mexico’s Federal Electoral Institute.

 

Most surveys during the third quarter of 2005 pointed to a three-man race, with leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leading the polls by a fairly wide margin over speculative presidential candidates of the National Action Party (PAN), and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), both of which had yet to select their candidates.

 

As party conventions were held, the PRD officially named Lopez Obrador its candidate. And the PRI chose party chief Roberto Madrazo, as expected, during a convention labeled a sham.

 

December also brought a surprise and some confusion, when after three PAN regional conventions held on different dates the party’s anticipated candidate, Santiago Creel, was unpredictably and soundly defeated by Felipe Calderon, the youthful conservative ex-party boss and a past Energy Secretary in the Vicente Fox administration.

 

December polls began to change almost immediately, as Lopez Obrador slowly lost ground to Calderon even during the Christmas truce.  At the same time Roberto Madrazo, whose dubious behavior, internal feuds and manipulated party purges while president of the PRI had exposed the party’s perennial undemocratic tradition, was relegated to a fairly close third.

 

During the Christmas advertising moratorium President Fox was criticized for the continuation of executive branch publicity to demonstrate his public works programs, which critics claimed helped Calderon and the PAN.

 

As the campaign started in January, the three-man race had been reduced to two likely possibilities. Some polls in fact had Lopez Obrador and Calderon virtually tied in the lead, while Madrazo made slip after slip that moved him to a more distant third place.

 

During the campaign’s opening days, Lopez Obrador apparently decided on a strategy that would hold his skimpy lead by scheduling an a la Mexicana whistle stop tour, targeting small and impoverished Mexican communities while avoiding large cities or incontrollable public appearances that could lead to arguments with the other candidates. He simply ignored his opponents, preferring to give his populist message to receptive audiences while taking every opportunity to criticize and harass Fox, hoping thus to hurt the PAN and, without actually confronting him, Calderon.

 

Madrazo, considering his tailspin, opted for an opposite strategy. He made numerous public appearances and speeches, but in an unfortunate twist his public presence reminded voters of both his and the PRI’s past corruption, and his numbers continue to slide.

 

Calderon took advantage of Madrazo’s slip-ups, and of Lopez Obrador’s absence, giving his message and describing future programs in several public forums.  Hoping to bring Lopez Obrador into the open, Calderon also brashly challenged him to debate, however Lopez Obrador refused while Madrazo instantly accepted.

 

As expected the debate has been postponed, but Lopez Obrador has begun to realize that his campaign strategy is making him invisible to the media. As a result he recanted, and opened debate rules talks saying that he might accept to debate all candidates sometime in May or June.

 

As I have written before, in Mexico the unimaginable sometimes seems unavoidable. First you have a leading candidate (Lopez Obrador) who has squandered his lead by deciding to snub his opposition. And then you have Madrazo of the PRI seeming to make every possible effort to loose the election.

 

At present Mexico’s presidential campaign is a lackluster non-event, a two-man race with one man (Calderon) running and gaining, while the other (Lopez Obrador) has preferred to stay on the sidelines.

 

The July 2 Mexican elections will only get interesting if Calderon continues to take advantage of Lopez Obrador’s public absence, in the latter’s hope to increase his poll numbers and regain the lead.

 

Or if Lopez Obrador decides to step back into the limelight in a timely and campaign appropriate manner.

 

And too, should the unlikeliest possibility arise, with Madrazo managing to reverse his skid and convince uncommitted voters that he will correct his, and his party’s, past ways and mistakes.

 

——————————

Carlos Luken, a MexiData.info columnist, is a Mexico-based businessman and consultant.  He can be reached via e-mail at ilcmex@yahoo.com.