Monday, September 26, 2005

 

Plausible deniability in Mexico and Latin America

 

By Jerry Brewer

 

While the doctrine of plausible deniability is deemed by many to simply be hypocrisy, it is in fact the old adage of not practicing what you preach.  Too, power structures and chains of command are only as strong as their weakest link.  And most intelligence and covert operations are informal enough to be denied, if necessary, and a government thusly disclaims responsibility.

 

When an administration or government entity avoids facts, or steers clear of an official gaining of information or confirmable knowledge, they are essentially saying it benefits us not to know.  However, while someone makes the decision at a higher-level to allow an entity to perform independently, at a minimum it’s most likely an abuse of power.

 

Monsignor Ramon Godinez, Bishop of Aguascalientes in Central Mexico, stated last week “donations from drug gangs (to churches) occur everywhere in the country.”  His rationale was that the money did not have to be destroyed just because it may be bad.

 

Does this then legitimize the drug trade?  Should families of murder victims of the drug cartels feel comfortable with this gesture?  If this is not investigated and condoned by government authorities, is this plausible deniability?

 

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is a study in lack of memory and factual recall.  Chavez responded to the U.S., after Hurricane Katrina, by sending condolences and saying “The people (of the U.S.) are brothers and sisters of all of us in the Americas and the world.”  Yet he also calls the U.S. a terrorist state.

 

Chavez, a frequent visitor to Latin American capitals, is seen by many as the leader of left-leaning presidents recently elected in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay.  President George W. Bush has called Chavez a destabilizing influence in Latin America.  And his time spent courting Middle East governments that belong to OPEC, the oil producer’s organization, demands close scrutiny by U.S. officials.  As well, Chavez has threatened to cutoff Venezuela’s oil sales to the U.S.

 

There is also evidence that the Chavez government is harboring Colombian terrorists.

 

A key leader of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) who had been waging war against Colombians, Rodrigo Granda, was captured in Venezuela late last year by bounty hunters.  Granda had been living in Venezuela since 2002, and he had been granted Venezuelan citizenship even though he was known to be a wanted man.  Yet Chavez denied knowledge of any of this.

 

However information surfaced that Granda had a diary, and it contained personal telephone numbers of not only FARC members but too of higher-ups in the Chavez government.  It should also be noted that Cuba’s Fidel Castro is a FARC supporter.

 

Is Venezuela a safe haven for FARC terrorists?

 

Officials in Bogota have specified that there are at least seven guerrilla principals enjoying protection by Chavez.  Additionally, Bush pulled no punches when he stated “any government that gives safe haven to terrorists is a U.S. enemy.”

 

With deniability echoing through the Americas, and accusations redirected to those actively fighting terrorism, the bottom line is that revolutions today are financed by those involved in narcotics and arms trafficking networks.  Furthermore, Chavez and Castro have clearly expressed ambitions to expand their reach throughout Latin America.

 

In Mexico, narcotics trafficking networks are flourishing.  In fact, Mexican Attorney General Daniel Cabeza de Vaca has said that there are seven major drug organizations currently operating in Mexico.

 

A stable, democratic, and economically prosperous Mexico is fundamental to the best interests of the U.S.  After all, the U.S. shares 2,100 miles of common border.  Mexico is also a trade dependent country, and it is most dependent on trade with the U.S., which buys some 88 percent of its exports.

 

The U.S. is the major target of those who do not share our interests, values or beliefs, and we cannot have an uneven engagement in the Americas like we have had elsewhere, in which we are guided tactically more than by strategy.  We must have comprehensive strategies to avoid paralysis, and be proactive in the achievement of our national goals.

 

We must also see to it that our intelligence community understands and performs in a systematic framework of cultural intelligence.  We must be adaptable, and capable of performing intelligence gathering and processing in global affairs within new cultural contexts.  This identifies and expands our own diversity.  Furthermore, within the range of deniability versus credibility, intelligence must be clear about what is known and what is not.

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Jerry Brewer, the Vice President of Criminal Justice International Associates, a global risk mitigation firm headquartered in Montgomery, Alabama, is also a columnist with MexiData.info.  He can be reached via e-mail at Cjiaincusa@aol.com