Mexico’s 2005 legislative agenda
By Enrique Andrade González
The second ordinary session period of the Mexican
Congress begins on February 1, the final period in the Chamber of Deputies over which Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)
deputy Manlio Fabio Beltrones will preside. As such, this offers an opportunity
for his party to show the people of Mexico its political capacity and governance ability, and thus give them reason to vote
for the PRI in 2006.
As this congressional period begins the constitutional
confrontation between the Chamber of Deputies and President Vicente Fox, that is now before Mexico’s Supreme Court,
is still pending. The case (that was filed in late 2004) relates to changes made
in the Chamber of Deputies to the president’s 2005 budget, and while the argument by deputies is sound and correct they
have lost a great deal of prestige.
The inability to advance issues on Mexico’s
national agenda has finally reduced it to a failed political operation, with the blame according to society shared equally
by the executive and legislative branches of government, and between the two political parties involved — the PRI and
the National Action Party, or PAN.
So, this February 1 to April 30 congressional session
will offer the opportunity to show an ability to move forward, and to do so responsibly on matters that are relevant for the
country, incorporating of course issues that are not just those proposed by the government.
Structural economic reforms
It is virtually certain that no reform agreements
will be reached to stimulate privatization of the electricity industry. With
respect to other energy reforms, gains will probably be made in the transportation and distribution of natural gas, and in
defining the scope of influence of Pemex (Mexican Petroleum) multiple service contracts through amendments to the corresponding
law.
Important fiscal reforms will not advance whatsoever.
State and electoral reforms
The modification creating the position of head of
the president’s cabinet, emanating from congress, will quite probably be approved.
Reforms are expected to pass that will allow
Mexican residents in the U.S. to vote in the 2006 presidential election; require political party financial transparency during
pre-campaigns; and better control campaign funds allocated for advertising and publicity.
The goal is to end the circumstance whereas he or she who spends the most wins the most votes.
Migrants and immigration
A bill to enact a Migrant Protection Law is pending,
and there is an act that would create binational education centers.
Another initiative before congress requires transparency
in transmittal operations of companies that control remittances. It also seeks
to stimulate a reduction in customer costs for remittances sent to Mexico.
Employment and casinos
The labor reform package is frozen and unlikely to
thaw.
On a more positive note, deputies will have to address
— and quite possibly approve — legislation for a new Federal Gaming with Wagers and Raffles Law. The proposal authorizes the opening of casinos in Mexico, and the probable vote will come following review
of a new study by the National Autonomous University of Mexico regarding the socioeconomic impact the legalization of casinos
might generate.
According to the final report on public hearings
held nationwide regarding casinos, work done by the Tourism Committee of the Chamber of Deputies, if authorized casinos would
spawn 50,000 new jobs and bring in US$624 million in tax revenue, the latter if a special nine percent casino revenue tax
would be created. Said tax income could then be shared, with 50 percent going
to cities with casinos, 30 percent to the state and 20 percent to the federal government.
By meeting this legislative agenda the Mexican congress
and its member’s productivity could be vindicated, as would be the political vocation of the PRI.
Yet certain obstacles and scandals that may occur
during this legislative period will have to be overcome. This means occurrences
related to gubernatorial elections in four states in February, continuing internal struggles within the political parties
over their 2006 presidential candidates, and anticipated high level resignations and adjustments within the Fox government.
But the single most significant matter revolves
around stripping Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador of his constitutional immunity from prosecution, which could
lead to his indictment on criminal charges. López Obrador is accused of violating a federal court order regarding his government’s misappropriation
of a parcel of land.
The forthcoming congressional period could become
the most productive to date of this congress. Then again, it represents the last
chance for accomplishment since thereafter all concerned will be totally immersed in politics in the run up to 2006.
Enrique Andrade, a Mexico City-based attorney and business consultant, writes a weekly column for MexiData.info. He can be reached via e-mail at enrique@abogadomx.com.
