Monday, May 20, 2013
Overview of Mexico's New Anti-Cartel Strategy and Tactics
By Scott Stewart
Mexican President Enrique Peña
Nieto's approach to combating Mexican drug cartels has been a much-discussed topic since well before he was elected. Indeed,
in June 2011 -- more than a year before the July 2012 Mexican presidential election -- I wrote an analysis discussing rumors
that, if elected, Peña Nieto was going to attempt to reach some sort of accommodation
with Mexico's drug cartels in order to bring down the level of violence.
Such rumors were certainly understandable, given the arrangement that had existed for many years between some senior
members of Peña Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party and some powerful cartel figures during the Institutional
Revolutionary Party's long reign in Mexico prior to the election of Vicente Fox of the National Action Party in 2000.
However, as we argued in 2011 and repeated in March 2013, much has changed in Mexico since 2000, and the new reality in Mexico means that it would be impossible for the Peña Nieto administration to
reach any sort of deal with the cartels even if it made an attempt.
the rumors of the Peña Nieto government reaching an accommodation with some cartel figures such as Joaquin "El
Chapo" Guzman Loera have persisted, even as the Mexican government arrests key operatives in Guzman's network, such
as Ines Coronel Barreras, Guzman's father-in-law, who was arrested May 1 in Agua Prieta, Mexico. Indeed, on April 27,
Washington Post reporter Dana Priest published a detailed article outlining how U.S. authorities were fearful that
the Mexican government was restructuring its security relationship with the U.S. government so that it could more easily reach
an unofficial truce with cartel leaders. Yet four days later, Coronel -- a significant cartel figure -- was arrested
in a joint operation between the Mexicans and Americans.
is some confusion on the U.S. side about the approach the Peña Nieto government is taking, but conversations with both
U.S. and Mexican officials reveal that these changes in Mexico's approach do not appear to be as drastic as some have
feared. There will need to be adjustments on both sides of the border while organizational changes are underway in Mexico,
but this does not mean that bilateral U.S.-Mexico cooperation will decline in the long term.
Opportunities and Challenges
Despite the violence that
has wracked Mexico over the past decade, the Mexican economy is booming. Arguably, the economy would be doing even better if potential investors were not
concerned about cartel violence and street crime -- and if such criminal activity did not have such a significant impact on
businesses operating in Mexico.
Because of this, the Peña Nieto
administration believes that it is critical to reduce the overall level of violence in the country. Essentially it wants to
transform the cartel issue into a law enforcement problem, something handled by the Interior Ministry and the national police,
rather than a national security problem handled by the Mexican military and the Center for Research and National Security
(Mexico's national-level intelligence agency). In many ways the Peña Nieto administration wants to follow the model
of the government of Colombia, which has never been able to stop trafficking in its territory but was able to defeat the powerful
Medellin and Cali cartels and relegate their successor organizations to a law enforcement problem.
The Mexicans also believe that if they can attenuate cartel violence, they will be able to free up law enforcement
forces to tackle common crime instead of focusing nearly all their resources on containing the cartel wars.
Although the cartels have not yet been taken down to the point of being a law enforcement
problem, the Peña Nieto administration wants to continue to signal this shift in approach by moving the focus of its
efforts against the cartels to the Interior Ministry. Unlike former Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who was seen leading
the charge against the cartels during his administration, Peña Nieto wants to maintain some distance from the struggle
against the cartels (at least publicly). Peña Nieto seeks to portray the cartels as a secondary issue that does not
demand his personal leadership and attention. He can then publicly focus his efforts on issues he deems critically important
to Mexico's future, like education reform, banking reform, energy reform and fostering the Mexican economy. This is the
most significant difference between the Calderon and Peña Nieto administrations.
Of course it is one thing to say that the cartels have become a secondary issue, and it is quite another to make
it happen. The Mexican government still faces some real challenges in reducing the threat posed by the cartels. However, it
is becoming clear that the Peña Nieto administration seeks to implement a holistic approach in an attempt to address
the problems at the root of the violence that in some ways is quite reminiscent of counterinsurgency policy. The Mexicans
view these underlying economic, cultural and sociological problems as issues that cannot be solved with force alone.
Mexican officials in the current government say that the approach the Calderon administration
took to fighting the cartels was wrong in that it sought to solve the problem of cartel violence by simply killing or arresting
cartel figures. They claim that Calderon's approach did nothing to treat the underlying causes of the violence and that
the cartels were able to recruit gunmen faster than the government could kill or capture them. (In some ways this is parallel
to the U.S. government's approach in Yemen, where increases in missile strikes from unmanned aerial vehicles have increased,
rather than reduced, the number of jihadists there.) In Mexico, when the cartels experienced trouble in recruiting enough
gunmen, they were able to readily import them from Central America.
However -- and this is very significant
-- this holistic approach does not mean that the Peña Nieto administration wants to totally abandon kinetic operations
against the cartels. An important pillar of any counterinsurgency campaign is providing security for the population. But rather
than provoke random firefights with cartel gunmen by sending military patrols into cartel hot spots, the Peña Nieto
team wants to be more targeted and intentional in its application of force. It seeks to take out the networks that hire and
supply the gunmen, not just the gunmen themselves, and this will require all the tools in its counternarcotics portfolio --
not only force, but also things like intelligence, financial action (to target cartel finances), public health, institution
building and anti-corruption efforts.
The theory is that by providing
security, stability and economic opportunity the government can undercut the cartels' ability to recruit youth who currently
see little other options in life but to join the cartels.
To truly succeed,
especially in the most lawless areas, the Mexican government is going to have to begin to build institutions -- and public
trust in those institutions -- from the ground up. The officials we have talked to hold Juarez up as an example they hope
to follow in other locations, though they say they learned a lot of lessons in Juarez that will allow them to streamline their
efforts elsewhere. Obviously, before they can begin building, they recognize that they will have to seize, consolidate and
hold territory, and this is the role they envision for the newly created gendarmerie, or paramilitary police.
is important to this rebuilding effort because the military is incapable of serving in an investigative law enforcement role.
They are deployed to pursue active shooters and target members of the cartels, but much of the crime affecting Mexico's
citizens and companies falls outside the military's purview. The military also has a tendency to be heavy-handed, and
reports of human rights abuses are quite common. Transforming from a national security to a law enforcement approach requires
the formation of an effective police force that is able to conduct community policing while pursuing car thieves, extortionists,
kidnappers and street gangs in addition to cartel gunmen.
U.S. government was very involved in the Calderon administration's kinetic approach to the cartel problem, as shown by
the very heavy collaboration between the two governments. The collaboration was so heavy, in fact, that some incoming Peña
Nieto administration figures were shocked by how integrated the Americans had become. The U.S. officials who told Dana Priest
they were uncomfortable with the new Mexican government's approach to cartel violence were undoubtedly among those deeply
involved in this process -- perhaps so deeply involved that they could not recognize that in the big picture, their approach
was failing to reduce the violence in Mexico. Indeed, from the Mexican perspective, the U.S. efforts have been focused on
reducing the flow of narcotics into the United States regardless of the impact of those efforts on Mexico's security environment.
However, as seen by the May 1 arrest of Coronel, which a Mexican official described as a
classic joint operation involving the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and Mexican Federal Police, the Mexican authorities
do intend to continue to work very closely with their American counterparts. But that cooperation must occur within the new
framework established for the anti-cartel efforts. That means that plans for cooperation must be presented through the Mexican
Interior Ministry so that the efforts can be centrally coordinated. Much of the current peer-to-peer cooperation can continue,
but within that structure.
Consolidation and Coordination
As in the United States, the law enforcement and intelligence agencies in Mexico have terrible
problems with coordination and information sharing. The current administration is attempting to correct this by centralizing
the anti-cartel efforts at the federal level and by creating coordination centers to oversee operations in the various regions.
These regional centers will collect information at the state and regional level and send it up to the national center. However,
one huge factor inhibiting information sharing in Mexico -- and between the Americans and Mexicans -- is the longstanding
problem of corruption in the Mexican government. In the past, drug czars, senior police officials and very senior politicians
have been accused of being on cartel payrolls. This makes trust critical, and lack of trust has caused some Mexican and most
American agencies to restrict the sharing of intelligence to only select, trusted contacts. Centralizing coordination will
interfere with this selective information flow in the short term, and it is going to take time for this new coordination effort to earn the trust of both Mexican and American
agencies. There remains fear that consolidation will also centralize corruption and make it
easier for the cartels to gather intelligence.
Another attempt at command
control and coordination is in the Peña Nieto administration's current efforts to implement police consolidation
at the state level. While corruption has reached into all levels of the Mexican government, it is unquestionably the most
pervasive at the municipal level, and in past government operations entire municipal police departments have been fired for
corruption. The idea is that if all police were brought under a unified state command, called "Mando Único"
in Spanish, the police would be better screened, trained and paid and therefore the force would be more professional.
This concept of police consolidation at the state level is not a new idea; indeed, Calderon
sought to do so under his administration, but it appears that Peña Nieto might have the political capital to make this
happen, along with some other changes that Calderon wanted to implement but could not quite pull off. To date, Peña
Nieto has had a great deal of success in garnering political support for his proposals, but the establishment of Mando Único
in each of Mexico's 31 states may perhaps be the toughest political struggle he has faced yet. If realized, Mando Único
will be an important step -- but only one step -- in the long process of institution building for the police at the state
Aside from the political struggles, the Mexican government still
faces very real challenges on the streets as it attempts to quell violence, reassert control over lawless areas and gain the
trust of the public. The holistic plan laid out by the Peña Nieto administration sounds good on paper, but it will
still require a great deal of leadership by Peña Nieto and his team to bring Mexico through the challenges it faces.
They will obviously need to cooperate with the United States to succeed, but it has become clear that this cooperation will
need to be on Mexico's terms and in accordance with the administration's new, holistic approach.
This piece, with the title
"Understanding Peña Nieto's Approach to the Cartels," by Scott Stewart, was first published in "Security Weekly" (May
16, 2013), by Stratfor. "Security Weekly" is one of three free publications offered by Stratfor,
a privately owned publisher of geopolitical analysis where analysts use a unique, intel-based approach to study world affairs.
Scott Stewart, Vice President of Analysis, oversees Stratfor's security team and its analytic efforts on issues around
the globe. He also oversees Stratfor's extensive coverage of the security environment in Mexico, and closely monitors
Mexican drug cartels, their areas of influence and their drug trafficking routes.
Republished with permission of Stratfor.