Monday, August 30, 2004

Lopez Obrador, Mexico’s giant with clay feet

By Carlos Luken

In the latest public opinion survey by Consulta Mitofski, during the month of August, populist Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has again shown his resilience by not only stopping his skid in the polls, but by again moving to the top of the list (26.7 percent) as the individual whom people would most prefer to win Mexico’s 2006 presidential election.

According to the survey, Lopez Obrador would win handedly (26.7 percent to 9.3) over the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s (PRI) most probable candidate, current party president Roberto Madrazo, and over any of the National Action Party’s (PAN) possible choices. Lopez Obrador also polled an outstanding 87.7 percent recognition share.

After having several of his administration’s top political and financial officers publicly exposed in various videotaped corruption scandals, Lopez Obrador saw his image tarnished and poll numbers tumbled in the first quarter of the year, a fall that was expected to continue into the coming months.

However Lopez Obrador and his recovery were unexpectedly helped by certain recent events that originated with two unlikely sources.  One was the government of President Vicente Fox, while the other was the president’s party, the PAN.

To begin with, the mayor’s well publicized and ultimately unsubstantiated charges that the political and corruption exposures were part of an orchestrated plot to discredit his administration by Fox eventually had an effect on some gullible audiences.

As well, to avoid political fallout first lady Marta Fox was persuaded to abandon her presidential aspirations. At the time she announced this, Mrs. Fox held a comfortable and uncontested second place in most public opinion polls. With her non-candidacy declared, her numbers understandably started to shrink which apparently worked in the mayor’s favor.

Too, in what seemed to be a well-coordinated yet untactful assault several PAN legislators and officials decided to criticize and take action against the mayor.  With that Lopez Obrador immediately retaliated, by alleging he was being persecuted, and he shrewdly adopted the position of a sacrificial victim, thus gaining public support.

Some analysts believe, that since Fox cannot run for reelection due to Mexican single term limits, he may be taking the hard stance against Lopez Obrador in order to relieve the pressure on potential PAN candidates.

Lopez Obrador currently faces a possible loss of immunity from prosecution due to charges that his government ignored a court order. If indicted, electoral regulations disallow his eligibility to register as a presidential candidate.  Yet once more Lopez Obrador has taken the martyr’s position, plus he is again charging the Fox administration with manipulating his indictment in order to disqualify his candidacy in 2006.

In a coordinated show of support the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), Lopez Obrador’s party, with city administration support, scheduled a rally for Sunday, August 29, just three days before Fox’s State of the Nation address.

Without regard for fiscal policy or budgets, Lopez Obrador regularly launches infrastructure projects aimed at the poor, while courting the rich in urban renewal projects. Despite the spiraling debt, he is commonly perceived as a man of results.

A product of the PRI machine that ruled Mexico for 71 years, Lopez Obrador is a calculating autocrat who rarely bothers with his metropolitan legislature, preferring instead to govern by decree and executive order.

Lopez Obrador is a shrewd maverick who governs by balancing populism and opportunism. He has no defined ideology and he shifts from one position to another without the least ideological constraint.  Unlike good communicators, he has nothing to communicate yet he has astutely manipulated the Mexico City media by starting each workday with an early morning press conference in which issues are evaded and little substance is reported.  Like an actor, Lopez Obrador carefully guards his image as he plays to the audience by lowering unpopular expenditures, reducing his salary and riding around town in a Nissan.

According to polls the PRD is the weakest of the three major political forces in Mexico today, with only 11 percent voter preference. However observers feel that Lopez Obrador could add the numbers needed to propel him to the presidency in 2006 by rallying dissatisfied and non-committed voters (40.9 percent).

Without doubt Lopez Obrador is the wrong man in the right place at the right time. As polls show, he has become Mexico’s predominant politician and the frontrunner to succeed President Fox. Hence, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador should not be silenced, harassed or victimized — he should be allowed to expose himself for what he is, an opportunistic and manipulative politician.

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