Monday, August 9, 2004

Implications of Oaxaca’s election on Mexico

By Enrique Andrade González

Plans were made in Oaxaca prior to the August 1 gubernatorial election for Héctor Sánchez to run against two “official” candidates.  The scheme was for Sánchez, a former Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) senator on the ballot for the fledgling Popular Unity Party, to run against Ulises Ruiz, the handpicked candidate of the state’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) governor, as well as Gabino Cué, a former PRI member who was the choice of the federal government’s National Action Party (PAN) on a coalition ticket with the PRD.

But following the election the State Electoral Institute announced the results, with the victory going to the PRI — an outcome that will surely be disputed first in the Oaxaca State Election Tribunal and then, quite probably, in federal electoral courts.  This as the tribunals must hear challenges that were prepared prior to the elections, as well as any legal questions that may have arose on Election Day.  As such, the official results of the election may not be ratified until the end of the year.

According to analysts sent to Oaxaca as election observers, the voting took place in a peaceful atmosphere, with representatives of the various political parties present at all poll locations.  As well, no charges of election crimes were filed with the federal Attorney General’s office.  By law the Federal Election Tribunal can only review actions accredited on electoral tally sheets from poll locations, and not unsubstantiated actions or those that are permitted in the election code.

The conclusion of the more than 2,000 observers and over 400 journalists who covered the vote in Oaxaca is that while the elections may have been legal they were at the least immoral.  However this, even if proven in court, could not bring about nullification of the election although it would bring into question the legitimacy of the future governor.

The Oaxaca results are important when the closeness and the commitment, between current Governor José Murat and PRI president Roberto Madrazo, are taken into consideration.  All concerned also recognize how important it is for the PRI to hold onto Oaxaca for the 2006 elections.

As such, and given his presidential aspirations, Madrazo will personally resent any challenges of the PRI victory.  So what would be expedient for his adversaries, both internal and external, would be to prolong this atmosphere of challenges and ungovernableness for as long as possible, in order to impact the internal decision of the PRI when the party nominates its next presidential candidate in 2005.

Election results during the PRI presidency of Madrazo, who took office on February 5, 2002, have been positive to date.  The party has continued to win in important central and southern states and cities, plus it regained the northern state of Nuevo León in 2003.  Moreover, this year it triumphed in Chihuahua and in that state’s important city of Ciudad Juárez, plus after 15-years of PAN governance of Tijuana, Baja California, the PRI has again won that northern city.

With respect to the PRD, as of today that party does not have a real presence in most Mexican states.  On top of this, the Andrés Manuel López Obrador phenomenon will not give the mayor’s party victories outside of Mexico City.

As well, it is clear that the PAN as a party in power has lost ground in the eyes of many people.  While survey results reflect acceptance of President Vicente Fox, they do not represent support for his party.

In the end the Oaxaca elections were hard fought not due to the presence of the PAN or the PRD, but because of internal splits within the PRI.  And these fractures are what PRI opponents are now trying to exploit, using as an inside ally Elba Esther Gordillo, the head of Mexico’s national teachers and education workers union who, as secretary general of the PRI, is second in command.

A basic element in the development of this conflict will be the position adopted by the PRD — will it participate with the PAN in a strategy of challenges and discrediting of the electoral institutions in Oaxaca, and in endorsing the federal government’s publicity management?  Or will it deny the accusations and thus validate the conspiracy theories that PRD presidential pre-candidate López Obrador continues to profess?

What is inescapable is, that since August 1, the PRI is the most likely party to win the Mexican presidency in 2006.  As for its adversaries, in reality they will only be able to do so by uniting and working together.

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Enrique Andrade González (a www.mexidata.info columnist) is a senior official with the office of the Presidency of the Republic, in Mexico City.  Lic. Andrade, an attorney who received his LL.M. in Constitutional and Protection (“Amparo”) Law from the Universidad Iberoamericana, is also a law professor at the Universidad Intercontinental.  His e-mail address is enriqueag@andradep.com.