Monday, August 2, 2004

 

Election Day calm disguises tragedy of Mexican politics

 

By Carlos Luken

 

While political parties denounced isolated irregularities, state elections in Mexico on August 1 were for the most part conducted in a peaceful atmosphere.  The local elections took place in three separate states — Baja California, Aguascalientes and Oaxaca.

 

Forewarned and anticipated violence and other Election Day problems in Oaxaca were apparently appeased, this after clashes between rival party mobs resulted in one death and several injuries during a week of disturbances and verbal scuffles between lame duck Governor Jose Murat, President Vicente Fox and members of Fox’s cabinet.

 

According to most observers the elections in Oaxaca were tense, with accusations of unlawful activities and vote buying. Voters went to the polls to choose between two political alliances that were contesting the governorship and the state’s unicameral legislature. Ulises Ruiz of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), in a grouping with the Mexican Ecological Green Party and the Workers Party headed one alliance, while Gabino Cue was the candidate of the National Action Party (PAN) led coalition with the Democratic Revolution Party and the Citizen Convergence Party. As polls closed the gubernatorial candidates were in a dead heat.

 

In Aguascalientes, where the governorship, 11 mayoral seats and the state congress were up for grabs, there was relative calm. As expected, PAN candidate Luis Armando Femat was being confirmed as the winner at the end of the day with a 57 to 35 point margin over the PRI’s Oscar Lopez. During that party’s primary election in Aguascalientes there had been a rupture in the ranks of the PRI, when Elba Esther Gordillo, boss of Mexico’s national teacher’s union and the Secretary General of the PRI, mutinied against the party’s first choice for candidate who was subsequently replaced by Lopez.

 

The other Election Day focus was on Baja California, where five municipalities and the state legislature were contested. The state has long been a PAN stronghold, ever since 1989 and the party’s first-ever gubernatorial win by Ernesto Ruffo. That PAN victory was a major detonator in the democratization process that eventually led to Fox’s presidential victory and the end of one party rule in Mexico.

 

What has drawn national and international attention to Baja California is the strong challenge to the PAN in its most important continuously held power base, the city and municipality of Tijuana.  The PRI candidate, an unconventional multimillionaire businessman, racetrack owner and betting book entrepreneur, is also a political heir to one of his party’s most dynastic and powerful names.

 

Jorge Hank Rhon, a duly labeled eccentric, has in the past also been accused of links with organized crime, charges that he adamantly denies. His reasonable response: “If that were the case I would be in jail by now.”

 

Presumably Hank poured millions into his mayoral campaign, and in just 60 days he bridged a 30-point gap to reach a virtual tie with his PAN opponent. Early results had the two candidates tied, each with 47% of the vote.  Too, the PRI is now being accused of illegal election day campaigning and intimidation of voters in Tijuana.

 

Once the final vote counts are in, expectations are that the results in both Oaxaca and Tijuana will be challenged in state and federal electoral courts.

 

If predictions by some analysts hold true and the PAN wins in Oaxaca and Aguascalientes, this could represent a needed shot-in-the-arm for the PAN and for Fox, particularly after PAN was shutout in the three gubernatorial elections that took place last July 4.

 

But a PRI victory in Oaxaca and Tijuana would signal a continuation of that party’s momentum, plus this could catapult PRI president Roberto Madrazo towards his party’s presidential candidacy in 2006.

 

Regardless of who wins, the real tragedy in Mexico’s political atmosphere is that citizens are unable to grasp that democracy is a process and not a destination. Many simply cannot understand that the election of Fox was but a first step.

 

As well, political parties have abdicated one of their most important duties by not educating citizens as to their responsibilities in Mexico’s democratic process.  As a result, there is great constituent skepticism, confusion and dissatisfaction, all of which lead to voter absenteeism that runs as high as 75 percent in some states.

 

Another misfortune in Mexican politics is that politicians continue with business as usual and in their usual ways. Regardless of the party in power, all state elections so far this year have been marred by accusations of government interference, illicit spending, party cronyism and fraudulent candidate selections.

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Carlos Luken (a www.mexidata.info columnist), a Mexicali, Baja California, based businessman, is the principal in I.L.C. Corporate Real Estate, a project development firm, and I.L.C. Corporate Services, a consulting practice that provides business management, consultancy and lobbying services to global corporations and government agencies. He can be reached via e-mail at ilcmex@yahoo.com.