Monday, August 24, 2009

Out of the PAN and Into the Fire

By Babak Farrahi

For a beleaguered country that has suffered more than its fair share of troubles, the recent midterm elections did not provide much comfort for Mexico, with a low turnout, and a defeat for President Felipe Calderon and his political party, the PAN (National Action Party).

The stinging nature of the rebuke may have been lessened by the fact that the winning party the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) won only 37 percent but that was more than enough for them to win five of the six contested gubernatorial elections and to double their seats in the lower House of the Congress. It was not enough to claim an outright majority but through alliances with smaller parties they should have considerable power to influence the upcoming legislative agenda. They will be able to chair the most important committees and hold the right of approval over the federal budget.

This is seen as an impressive renaissance for the party which had finished a distant third in the 2006 presidential elections. Many analysts are however, sceptical and do not believe that this recent success means the PRI will have one of their own in the presidential residence at Los Pinos in 2012. The PRI enjoyed similar success in the midterm elections of 2003 leading to an optimistic outlook for 2006, only for it to have been undone by having a particularly unpopular candidate. This was hard to take for a party which had single-handedly controlled Mexico for over 70 years until its defeat in 2000.

Long term prospects for PRI may, however, be rosy if they learn from their recent mistakes. Following their prior success they sought to play an obstructive role by blocking much of the then President, PAN’s Vicente Fox’s legislative agenda. Now they may adopt a different tactic of working alongside the President in formulating legislation so as to show to the Mexican public that they have learned from their years in the wilderness, and are committed to democracy.

They also benefit from two nationally important figures that have sufficient popularity and political strength to allow for a considerable presidential push, Beatriz Paredes and Enrique Pena Nieto. Paredes is the party president who has led PRI’s political resurgence since 2006 and is now likely to be the PRI’s leader in the Chamber of Deputies. Pena Nieto is the governor of the state of Mexico, the country’s most populous state, where the PRI electorally crushed the PAN.

The PAN, on the other hand, has found itself suffering from the global economic difficulties which have hit Mexico hard, particularly due to its close economic ties to the United States: the decline in remittances from those who have emigrated north, and plummeting income from tourism, exacerbated by the swine flu. Additionally, it has served to highlight the fundamental flaws of the Mexican economy, where large monopolies have stymied growth and which for too long has been dependent on the national oil company, PEMEX which is now suffering from falling production and reserves only felt to be enough for another 13 years at current output. All this is on top of the violence that has spilled out onto the streets as a result of Calderon’s attempts at combating the illegal drug trade, which has corrupted so much of the infrastructure of the Mexican state, particularly over the course of the PRI’s reign and had gone unchecked since. Polling suggested that although many accepted that the PRI politicians were corrupt when in office, they felt nostalgia for corruption that seemed to come with some practical results and stability.

The president of PAN, German Martinez, has resigned from his position following the election, a measure of political accountability that some have noted previously rare in Mexico. The political fallout has not been limited to the national level, with disputes at the state level too, where there are calls for local party leaders to follow Martinez’s example.

The direction that the PRI will take remains unclear, especially as the party has always been somewhat ideologically amorphous. It may well be that there will be a power struggle over the next few years within the party considering that Beatriz Paredes is seen as a moderniser, whilst Enrique Pena Nieto is considered to be closer to the reactionary wing of the party. It has been reported that privately some PRI legislators would be content to return to the days of a corporatist economy and accommodation with drug traffickers. Its more dubious political legacy came to light once more, when shortly before the election a fire in a day-care center in the northern state of Sonora led to the death of 44 children. Such was the frustration with the response of the authorities in investigating the negligence that resulted in these deaths, the PRI lost their only gubernatorial fight; the first time they have not held the governorship in the state.

President Calderon has demonstrated his willingness and patience to negotiate and the most likely scenario is that the PRI will recognise the imperative to help get the economy back onto a sounder footing given they may inherit the presidency in three years, but whether the tax reforms and energy privatization that seem so necessary for future economic growth will be able to be pushed through remains to be seen.

Help for the government may also come in the next few weeks as President Obama will be visiting along with Prime Minister Harper of Canada for a meeting of North American leaders in Guadalajara, and greater assistance in fighting the drug war and boosting legal trade should be on offer. Mexico has proven itself to be able to transition from a single party state to a democracy and to integrate itself economically. But such advances remain fragile and considerable effort and resources are necessary for it not to come undone.

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Babak Farrahi is a freelance writer; this article was originally published August 6, 2009.

This article was originally published at The Diplomatic Courier: A Global Affairs Magazine: in Washington, DC. For more articles, special reports, and global resources please visit www.diplomaticourier.org. Copyright 2009 The Diplomatic Courier. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.