Monday, August 24, 2009
Mexico's EPR 'Guerrillas': A Nuisance or a Threat in 2010?
By Sylvia Longmire
In this time of unprecedented
violence and criminal activity throughout Mexico, the last thing President Felipe Calderón’s government needs is a guerrilla
group resurgence. But is the chaos in some parts of Mexico tempting those who seek to end the democratic state?
The Popular Revolutionary Army,
or EPR for Ejército Popular Revolucionario, is a Marxist-Leninist guerrilla group
in Mexico that advocates a socialist revolution. The group announced its existence on June 28, 1996, at the one-year anniversary
memorial of the Aguas Blancas Massacre, in Aguas Blancas, Guerrero. During this
announcement, the group read from its manifesto in which they described their origins: “We come from the sadness of
widows and orphans, from the absence created by our disappeared loved ones." Then they called for the overthrow of the "unjust
and illegitimate" Mexican government.
The EPR is rarely in the American
press, and it seems they’ve always been overshadowed in Mexico by the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN), more
commonly known as the Zapatistas. The EZLN’s famous leader, Subcomandante Marcos, has denied any connection to the EPR,
although the EPR has stated their support for the mostly anarchist Zapatistas.
In the 13 years since they announced
their existence, the EPR has carried out relatively few attacks against government and economic targets, although some have
been significant. In the summer of 1996, the EPR conducted several attacks against Mexican soldiers and police, killing or
wounding several of each and some civilians. In late August 1996, a coordinated multistate attack hit army, police, and government
targets in Oaxaca, Guerrero, Puebla and the Federal District, killing 18 and wounding more than two dozen. Guerrilla forces
also blocked roads in Chiapas to distribute pamphlets, and seized a radio station in Tabasco.
The EPR was relatively quiet
for several years before reportedly engaging in one of Mexico’s most gruesome crimes to date. In November 2006, Joel
Ortega, the Federal District’s Secretary of Public Security, said the 2004 beating and burning to death of two federal
police officers by a mob of residents in the Tláhuac district may have been planned by the EPR. He also said he wasn’t
ruling out the possibility that the EPR was involved in other major unsolved crimes, including a bank heist in early October
2006 when thieves made off with an estimated $231 million pesos after boring a hole into a Banamex branch in the small town
of Tecamachalco.
Between July and September 2007,
they staged several attacks against oil facilities and pipelines around the country. Some were well coordinated, inviting
speculation that they were receiving outside help. In July 2007, the EPR claimed responsibility for several attacks against
Pemex oil facilities in the central Bajío region. The following month, they also claimed responsibility for a bomb attack
against a Sears store, and an attempted bombing of a Banamex bank branch, both in Oaxaca.
By far, the EPR’s most
significant attacks occurred in September 2007, when six separate oil and gas pipelines were hit in Veracruz and Tlaxcala.
The explosions caused millions of dollars in damage to Pemex equipment and resulted in the evacuation of over 20,000 people
from the areas around the explosions. Some government estimates claimed Mexico was losing $100 million a day in oil and gas
revenue, and that at least 2,500 Mexican businesses had been affected by the attacks.
The EPR claimed the attacks were
in retaliation for the government’s detention of two EPR members. The Mexican government denied the arrests and said
it had no knowledge of the men or their whereabouts.
In January 2008, Strategic Forecasting
(Stratfor) reported EPR’s announcement that they would provide advanced warning of attacks to prevent injuries. Stratfor
also said their announcement mimicked tactics employed by militant groups like the Basque ETA and the Irish Republican Army
(IRA), which both phone in warnings ahead of impending bomb attacks. Coincidentally, it came after government sources revealed
in December 2007 that it was tracking the movements of up to four EPR cells.
Later in 2008, the EPR proposed
entering into negotiations with the Mexican government. According to the Los Angeles
Times, officials from President Felipe Calderón’s government warmed to the idea in an April 29, 2008 communiqué from the Interior Ministry, but several conditions were established: first, the EPR
must first renounce further acts of violence; and second, the talks must be directly between the government and the EPR, with
writers Carlos Montemayor and Miguel Angel Granados Chapa, among others who offered to act as go-betweens, acting only as
witnesses.
In a communiqué released on May
7, the EPR said no. "We reject categorically the communiqué of the Calderón government," the EPR wrote, calling the government's
counteroffer "treacherous, grotesque and deceitful.”
Little has been heard from the
EPR in the time since. Headlines of drug-related murders, decapitations, kidnappings, and arrests of cartel members dominate
the headlines these days, and rebel groups like the EPR have fallen by the wayside in all the chaos. This is precisely what
could make them a threat to Mexico’s government and economy in the near future.
In 2010, Mexico will celebrate
both the 200th anniversary of its call for Independence, and the centennial of the start of the Mexican Revolution. These
are two huge events that could be used as an excuse for smaller, largely ignored rebel groups like the EPR to make their voices
heard by the government.
Theories abound regarding outside—and
dangerous—help the EPR might be receiving. McClatchy News and other media reports hint that Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez
may be financing the EPR and other Mexican rebel groups, but no confirming evidence exists. In the 2007 pipeline attacks,
the EPR used sophisticated European-style plastic explosives, which the EPR had never been known to use before.
If the EPR is indeed receiving
outside assistance, either from foreign governments, the cartels, or terrorist organizations in other Latin American countries,
any future attacks against Mexican government or economic targets could be devastating. Mexico’s intelligence services
were caught off-guard by the 2007 pipeline attacks, and they may have their hands too full with counterdrug work to receive
advance warning of rebel attacks.
The EPR’s self-introduction
occurred on a relatively significant historical date, so it’s plausible they may use future significant dates in attack
planning. It’s also possible the EPR will continue to be no more than a nuisance, inflicting some damage here and there.
However, in 2010 the Mexican government can’t afford to take that risk.
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For
additional background information, see: “Mexico’s So-called ‘Popular Revolutionary Army,’” MexiData.info, July 16, 2007 (part one of three parts); “Mexican Rebels and Their Assault on the Future,” MexiData.info, July 23, 2007 (part two of three); and "Bombings and Other Explosive Actions in Mexico," MexiData.info, July 30, 2007 (part three of three)
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Sylvia Longmire is a former Air Force officer and Special Agent with the Air Force Office of Special Investigations,
where she specialized in counterintelligence, counterespionage, and force protection analysis. After being medically retired
in 2005, Ms. Longmire worked for almost four years as a Senior Intelligence Analyst for the California State Terrorism Threat
Assessment Center, providing daily situational awareness to senior state government officials on southwest border violence
and significant events in Latin America. She received her Master’s degree from the University of South Florida in Latin
American and Caribbean Studies, with a focus on the Cuban and Guatemalan revolutions. Ms. Longmire is currently an independent
consultant and freelance writer. Her website is Mexico's Drug War; she is a regular contributor to Examiner.com; and her email address is spooky926@gmail.com.
