Monday, June 29, 2009

At Last Mexico's Midterm Elections seem less Insipid

By Barnard R. Thompson

·   The PRD is now threatening to expel AMLO, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, from the party after the July elections

 

On Sunday, July 5, Mexico will hold midterm elections for its 500-member Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of the federal bicameral Congress.  Usually ho-hum affairs, excepting one supposes among candidates, political parties, those who govern and the media, this year's campaigns and the forthcoming elections have a number of sidebar stories that are adding color to the scene.

 

Moreover, the results will be important insofar as the partisan makeup of Congress over the next three years well may influence the success or failure of the proposals, plans and aspirations of President Felipe Calderón and his government.  It would be unfortunate – and sad – if Calderón would become a virtual lame duck through 2012.

 

In addition to the election for federal deputies (300 elected by direct vote, and 200 by proportional representation), state and municipal balloting will take place in 11 of Mexico's 31 states, with six to elect new governors.  (See 2009 Mexico Political & Holiday Calendar)

 

As of late, the most publicized machinations relate to the call for ballots to be unsuitably marked or vitiated, or simply cast in blank, so that such ballots will then be voided.  This, so it is said and as harebrained as it may seem, in order for those concerned to send messages of criticism and concern to the powers that be.

 

Yet – and apart from the obvious damage to democracy such actions could cause – this will exacerbate the serious shortcomings of voter apathy and abstention on Election Day, a growing problem in Mexico.  That is unless those behind the null or blank vote movement are seeking to use chronic voter indifference and absence to pad their figures.

 

In 2006, Mexico's last general election – that included the presidency of the United Mexican States, 41.45 percent of those registered to vote chose not to cast ballots.  In the 2000 presidential and congressional elections, the abstention figure was 36.34 percent.

 

The figure skyrocketed however for the 2003 midterm elections, with 58 percent of the registered voters staying away from the polls (in some states the figure was between 65 and 70 percent).  Comparatively, the midterm abstention figures were 42 percent in 1997; and 32 percent in 1991.

 

So how can the disenchantment and indifference be overcome?  So far, the answer seems to be – nobody knows.

 

While the Calderón administration is having success in some areas, the hurt from international economic crises and downturns in sectors of the domestic economy has taken a toll on the country.  These factors coupled with negative image problems due to drug war violence and the so-called swine flu, along with a drop in tourism, less money in remittances from Mexicans living abroad, etc.

 

With these burdens on the federal government, and considerable public apathy – with regard to both government actions (and/or inaction) and electoral politics, Mexico's political parties have been doing everything possible to make headlines, aided by and thanks to a hungry media.  And while the parties are certainly seeking to win seats in Congress in order to gain future control, this is also all about money.

 

Lots of money.

 

The Mexican political system grants public funds to officially registered parties, Mexican pesos that equal millions and millions of US dollars each year, distributed mainly through the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE).  Furthermore, in election years the huge sums are increased substantially for the authorized campaign periods.

However, in some cases even more than the political parties, this year state governors have apparently played influential roles in the electoral process and maneuvering.  In the candidate selection courses of action, many governors had a forceful hand in naming who got the nod.  Decisions that party officials were unable to control to the degree they normally do, in a system where legislators first and foremost serve those who got them named and elected rather than constituents.

This will be further complicated if the Institutional Revolutionary Party, the PRI, wins a majority in the Chamber of Deputies as is expected.  A situation that could potentially make it harder for the Calderon government and the president's National Action Party (PAN) to get initiatives through Congress.

As well, negotiating with members of Congress would be more difficult with certain deputies beholden to governors first and their party second.

Another major factor is that the 2009 elections are a run-up to those in 2012, when Mexico will elect a new president in addition to both houses of Congress.

And one person, so far at least, is more notable than others (including the perennial campaigning by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the PRD's (Party of the Democratic Revolution) presidential candidate in 2006 who lost a squeaker to Calderón.  That person is Governor Enrique Peña Nieto, of the State of Mexico.

Peña Nieto (PRI) is midway through his six-year term and campaigning hard (which is superficially disguised) for his party's nomination as its presidential candidate in 2012.  Backing Peña is former President Carlos Salinas de Gortari (PRI, 1988-94), whose tainted reputation has been improved over the past three to four years, thanks in part to support from Peña and the popular image the latter enjoys.  He is also supported by the State of Mexico's powerful Grupo Atlacomulco in the crusade to return the PRI to the presidency.

In addition, Peña has been on a mainly television media blitz for a couple of years, publicizing his plans and accomplishments, which has made him more of a national figure.  Also helping Peña's image in the media is his romance with TV actress Angélica Rivera.  Peña [43], a widower, has three children.  This romance has also served as a distraction with respect to ongoing public problems Peña faces, such as the land disputes at San Salvador Atenco, and complaints that the archeological ceremonial center at Teotihuacán is to be privatized.

A number of other election related matters and stories continue to percolate, like complaints that Elba Esther Gordillo and her million-plus member teachers union have too much influence with Felipe Calderón and in his PAN government; the political role and involvement of the Roman Catholic Church in the electoral process; fear of drug lords investing in candidates' campaigns; Calderón's drug war and the arrest of state and local government officials in Michoacán for alleged involvement in drug trafficking being used to gain votes for the PAN; etc.

In another clash, that may ultimately prove to be one of the more entertaining squabbles, the PRD is now threatening to expel AMLO, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, from the party after the July 5 elections.  According to Jesús Ortega, the PRD president, at a yet to be determined date his party will assess AMLO's conduct during the current campaign.  The complaints are that López Obrador has violated party statutes by endorsing and calling upon people to vote for certain Labor Party and Convergence Party candidates, this at the expense of PRD candidates.

Of course, this could be targeting 2012, when AMLO – who since 2006 has called himself "the legitimate president of Mexico" – will surely seek the presidency once again.  However, possibly there are others in the PRD who want to discredit and vilify AMLO even more than he has done to himself as they wait in the wings with hopes of becoming the party's future candidate.

Or it could just be another publicity stunt in the Machiavellian world of Mexican politics.

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Barnard Thompson, editor of MexiData.info, has spent 50 years in Mexico and Latin America, providing multinational clients with actionable intelligence; country and political risk reporting and analysis; and business, lobbying, and problem resolution services.