Monday, July 5, 2004

 

Disheartenment may decide Mexican elections

 

By Carlos Luken

 

After the June 27 half-million-person marches against crime that took place throughout Mexico, many naïve bystanders might expect colossal civilian avalanches to be imminent and materialize in support of almost every common concern.

 

Unfortunately this may not prove to be the case in most 2004 state and local elections. In fact, the heralded mass marches may soon fizzle to voter evaporation.

 

With elections in ten states across the country this year, most analysts expect low voter turnouts — in some cases 35 percent or less of the electorate. This, while a chronic problem, is today being aggravated by political scandals, campaign disqualifications and the open and ongoing feud between President Vicente Fox and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left-of-center mayor of Mexico City where the mother of all anti-crime marches took place on June 27.

 

The last local elections in states like Chihuahua and Durango had abstention rates of up to 65% of registered voters and this year expectations are little better. This year, on July 4, gubernatorial elections were held in the states of in Durango, Chihuahua and Zacatecas, states where the campaign moods have been venomous.

 

Furthermore, voters are disgusted with the notorious partisan power struggle that has paralyzed most vital reform bills that have been sent to congress by Fox or his National Action Party (PAN). As well, projects from the leftist Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) and the once invincible Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) have been stymied.

 

In Zacatecas, in what would seem to be a reversal of roles, PRI candidates have charged PRD Governor Ricardo Monreal with using public funds to support his party’s candidate for the governorship, former senator Amalia Garcia. As well, Zacatecas interestingly changed its state constitution last year to exclusively reserve two legislature seats for migrants. It now also allows part-time residents and/or U.S.-born Mexican citizens with Zacatecan parents, to run for state office.

 

This year’s elections have already seen several migrant candidates. In Zacatecas there was Andres Bermudez, “the tomato king” who went from field hand in California to millionaire by inventing a tomato-planting machine. Bermudez tossed his PAN hat into the mayoral race for a second time in Jerez, his old hometown. The outcome of this innovative vote (that will be announced during the latter part of the week of July 4) is of huge interest, as Mexico seeks to politically include and integrate citizens living abroad — which was a key reason for Fox’s June trip to the U.S.

 

The electoral conflict in Chihuahua, where the PRI and PAN have long been at the throats of each other, forced the two gubernatorial candidates into confrontational tones. As such, the rhetoric of Jose Reyes Baeza Terrazas (PRI) and Senator Javier Corral (PAN) further predisposed the electorate into not voting.

 

The August 1 elections in Aguascalientes may prove to be just as divisive. The predicament began during the PRI’s internal primary process, when Elba Esther Gordillo rebelliously challenged preordained candidate Oscar Gonzalez. Gordillo, the PRI’s secretary general, was previously ousted from her leadership position in congress in a feat where Gonzalez may have played a role.

 

Unable to resolve the candidacy matter, the Aguascalientes PRI next named ex-senator Oscar Lopez Velarde to be its candidate. But dark horse Lopez and his divided party are facing a strong PAN contender in Luis Reynoso Femat, who has a commanding lead in the polls and who is expected to continue his party’s hold on the governorship.

 

The state election process has sunk to an all-time low in Oaxaca, where two major candidates represent multi-party coalitions. PRI candidate and Senator Ulises Ruiz has also allied himself with the Workers and the Mexican Ecological Green parties, while Democratic Convergence candidate Gabino Cue has gained support from the PAN and PRD. And while the candidates antagonistically and incessantly denounce each other, Governor Jose Murat continues his efforts to convince legions of skeptics that a recent “assassination attempt” on his person was real and not staged, for it has become an albatross around the PRI candidate’s neck.

 

In far too many cases, whenever and wherever elections are held there are belligerent airs and acts that lead to disillusionment among voters. This, joined with inexhaustible political scandals and partisan squabbling, has thus disqualified many Mexican politicians, and politics in general, in the public eye. Consequently, the fear is that this disenchantment will keep more and more voters from participating in Mexico’s democratic process, which could ultimately lead to elections being won with constituencies of less than 20 percent of registered voters.

____________________

Carlos Luken (a www.mexidata.info columnist), a Mexicali, Baja California, based businessman, is the principal in I.L.C. Corporate Real Estate, a project development firm, and I.L.C. Corporate Services, a consulting practice that provides business management, consultancy and lobbying services to global corporations and government agencies. He can be reached via e-mail at ilcmex@yahoo.com.