Monday, January 19, 2009

'The JOE 2008 – The Joint Operating Environment: Challenges and Implications for the Future Joint Force'

·   Mexico in a U.S. Military Assessment Study

"The JOE 2008 – The Joint Operating Environment: Challenges and Implications for the Future Joint Force" (link below) is a military study by the United States Joint Forces Command that was completed in November 2008, and just released publicly.  The USJFCOM is one of ten Unified Combatant Commands of the United States Armed Forces.

In the introduction of the study, it states: "The Joint Operating Environment is intended to inform joint concept development and experimentation throughout the Department of Defense. It provides a perspective on future trends, shocks, contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders and other leaders and professionals in the national security field. This document is speculative in nature and does not suppose to predict what will happen in the next twenty-five years."

Yet in many of the recent media and Internet reports about the study, with respect to Mexico, it has been interpreted as factual vis-à-vis speculative, which brought about sharp censures from a number of government sectors in Mexico.  As an example, Mexican officials found comments on page 36 of the 56 page study especially offensive ("Part III: The Contextual World"):

"In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico…."

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

In response to news reports on the publication, Mexico's Secretary of Public Security, Genaro García Luna, denied that Mexico is at risk of collapse due to narcotics trafficking.  "On the contrary, Mexico is strong and fortified," García said.  (El Universal, January 15)

"Secretary of Government Fernando Gómez-Mont said that it is inadmissible to classify Mexico as a security risk, insofar as while there are problems there are means to face them, and Mexico is governable.  During an interview, on opinions expressed in the United States identifying Mexico and Pakistan as dangerous places, he said that there are personal opinions that leak under the veneer of state agencies, plus some studies are nonsense and others are intelligent."  (Milenio, January 14)

The study:

The JOE 2008 – The Joint Operating Environment: Challenges and Implications for the Future Joint Force, United States Joint Forces Command

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MexiData.info translations (edited) and commentary