Monday, January 19, 2009

When the Hoopla Is Over Will Obama Let Down Mexicans?

By Allan Wall

•  The hope in Mexico is that Obama will grant an amnesty to Mexican illegal aliens in the U.S.

Tomorrow, January 20th, 2009, is the scheduled inauguration of Barack Obama as President of the United States.  What does this mean for the U.S., and the world?

Does it mean the departure of the wicked George W. Bush, and his replacement with the marvelous Barack Obama who will bring peace, put an end to fear, and stop global warming?

That’s the sort of over-the-top rhetoric we’ve been hearing.  Many Obama supporters display a disturbing cult-like fervor, and the mainstream media didn’t even bother to hide its pro-Obama bias during the election. 

Nevertheless, the “Bush-as-root-of-all-evil” crowd is in for a real letdown when they discover that Barack Obama can’t deliver all that’s been promised. 

Certainly the Bush administration has a lot to answer for, and its incompetence helped pave the way for Obama’s victory.  But after January 20th, it’s time for Obama to actually deliver something concrete.

Disappointment is inevitable.  In fact, Obama is not even president but some of the sheen is already wearing off. 

Ludicrously enough, Obama has already been blamed for the fighting in Gaza. In Iran, his posters have been publicly burned and he’s been ridiculed by the chief of the powerful Council of Guardians.  Who can doubt that Obama will not satisfy everybody in the Middle East. After all, who could?

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, who was supposed to get on famously with Obama, has already turned against him.  Bigmouth Hugo has accused Obama of meddling in Venezuela, and says Obama has  the same “stench” as President Bush. (The “stench” part likely alludes to Hugo’s calling Bush the devil in a speech to the United Nations.)

Obama isn’t even president yet and already he has international critics.  After his administration gets rolling, how can he avoid offending more people?  For a U.S. president – any U.S. president – that must be impossible nowadays.

The truth is, we don’t know for certain how Obama will govern.  Will he follow his far left background, or govern from the middle?  How will he get along with Congress?  Neither Obama’s detractors nor his supporters can really tell us.

Nor is there much in Obama’s biography that can enlighten us.  Except for a short stint as editor of Harvard Law Review, Obama has zero experience as a public administrator.  

And despite all the calls for “hope” and “change,” what objective observer can doubt that Obama will continue many Bush policies, just as Bush continued some Clinton policies? 

In Mexico there are some great expectations about the new Obama administration.  Polling indicates that among Mexicans who had an opinion (because all didn’t) most preferred Obama over McCain. 

Last summer I heard a Mexican talking who thought Obama already was the president!  Given the media coverage, that’s understandable.

The hope in Mexico is that Obama will grant an amnesty to Mexican illegal aliens in the U.S.  However, those who think that may be disappointed.

In the first place, a U.S. president can’t simply snap his fingers and grant an amnesty to millions of illegal aliens.  Although he doesn’t get credit for it in Mexico, George W. Bush tried repeatedly to give illegal aliens an amnesty.  Bush failed, not for lack of trying but because illegal alien amnesty is quite unpopular, and the legislation was stopped by grassroots opposition. 

The same thing could happen to Obama if he tries.

In the Senate a new bill that could provide an amnesty has already been introduced, but who knows what will become of it? 

Furthermore, despite lip service, illegal alien amnesty is probably not near the top of Obama’s priorities.

If reactivating the economy and creating jobs are Obama’s priorities, then how keenly are American voters going to view amnesty or a guest worker program?

In fact, Obama’s chief of staff Rahm Emanuel told an Hispanic activist that he does not foresee “comprehensive immigration reform” (amnesty) during Obama’s first administration. 

Not only that, but according to a Pew Hispanic Center poll, for U.S. Hispanics, immigration is not even their most important political issue.  It came in at #6, with the economy at #1.

Therefore, enacting an amnesty for Mexican illegal aliens may not be any easier under Obama than it was under Bush.  Which means that, eventually, after all the hoopla and euphoria wears off, it’s quite possible that Barack Obama is going to disappoint Mexicans.

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Allan Wall, an educator, resided in Mexico for many years.  His website is located at www.allanwall.net.