Monday, November 17, 2008
Will the Latino Vote Spur US Immigration Reform in 2009?
Frontera NorteSur
Will Barack Obama's historic election victory give new impetus to immigration reform in the United States? Analysts
and political observers in the United States and Mexico have mixed assessments. Auguring against a quick fix are the economic
crisis and the Iraq war, both of which the president-elect promises to prioritize early on his administration.
Speaking
on the US-based Univision Spanish-language television network shortly after Obama's victory, Chicago City Councilman Billy
Ocasio said he did not think immigration reform would be possible within the first 100 days of the new administration, but
he proposed the suspension of ICE raids and mass deportations until a solution to the question of illegal immigration could
be further analyzed.
Gustavo Cordova Bojorquez, director of the Colegio de la Frontera Norte in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico,
was likewise skeptical of any swift resolution to the US immigration question.
"In this regard, (Obama) isn't going
to make any substantial changes in the short run," Cordova contended, "since (immigration) remained discrete and stayed at
the margins during the campaign and he won without making any commitments." Cordova predicted that immigration reform will
reemerge on the US political agenda during the third year of the incoming administration, at a time when President Obama is
seeking reelection and will have to revisit an issue that could aid him in winning a second term.
For most of the 2008
campaign, Obama, as well as Republican rival John McCain, shied away from tackling the hot potato immigration reform issue
on the campaign trail. A notable exception was in the Spanish-language media, where the two candidates blamed each other for
the defeat of immigration reform in 2007. In an Albuquerque speech during the final days of the campaign, Obama, who was comfortably
ahead in the polls by the time, reasserted his position that a path to legalization for undocumented residents is necessary.
Calling
for greater border security and crackdowns on employers who hire undocumented workers, Obama nevertheless supported citizenship
for undocumented residents who pay fines and learn English. "They broke the law and we can't excuse that, but we can't deport
12 million people," he said.
A likely pivotal player in a revived immigration reform push will be President-elect Obama's
named White House Chief of Staff, Illinois Democratic Congressman Rahm Emanuel. Previously a strong supporter of immigration
reform, Rep. Emanuel backed away from the issue after bills failed to pass Capitol Hill last year. More recently, he has been
quoted as saying immigration reform won't happen during the new Democratic administration's first term. Emanuel also reiterated
that the economy will be the burning issue to address.
Hard numbers from the 2008 election, however, strongly suggest
that the Democrats will ignore immigration reform at the risk of alienating an important and growing part of their winning
coalition.
In a post-election telephone press conference with Frontera NorteSur and other media, Miami-based pollster
Sergio Bendixen credited new immigrant voters, who he estimated made up 40 percent of the 10 million-plus Latino vote in 2008,
for helping sweep Obama into the White House.
Based on exit polls of 2102 new immigrant voters in Los Angeles and Miami,
Bendixen said that 78 percent of the voters surveyed went for Obama and 22 percent for McCain. Immigrant voters played
key or decisive roles in the swing states of Indiana, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and New Mexico, according to Bendixen.
Univision
proclaimed Latinos as the "new political force of the 21st century" in the United States. Overall, Latino voter turnout, immigrant
and non-immigrant, exceeded many predictions and nearly doubled from 5.9 million voters in 2000 to more than 10 million in
2008.
While economic, health care and other issues were very important for Latino voters in general and new immigrant
voters in particular, Bendixen said immigration was the catalytic issue that politicized the immigrant community.
The
virulent tone the immigration debate assumed after the introduction of the 2005 Sensenbrenner bill that proposed criminalizing
undocumented residents was perceived as an assault against the entire Latino community, immigrant and non-immigrant alike,
Bendixen said, leading many Latinos to reject a Republican Party which was skewed as anti-immigrant and anti-Latino.
"I
think we can conclude that the immigration issue was very important for all Hispanic voters and united them in this election,"
Bendixen asserted.
"(Anti-immigrant sentiment) drove the Hispanic vote in a substantial way toward Barack Obama," the
political expert added. "It is clear that Latin American immigrants who voted voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama."
In
Illinois, home of a huge immigrant population, John McCain was tagged with the anti-immigrant camp, even though the Arizona
senator was once a champion of comprehensive immigration reform, said Joshua Hoyt, executive director of the Illinois Coalition
for Immigrant and Refugee Rights. The Republicans, Hoyt said, paid the price at the polls.
"The Republican brand has
basically been destroyed among Latinos," Hoyt maintained. Illinois Republicans, he added, are beginning to resemble "the limbless
black knight in Monty Python's Holy Grail."
Although it is still too early to fully assess the impact and meaning of
this year's immigrant and Latino vote, a preliminary glance at the results indicates that such voters, many of whom voted
for the first time, were crucial for not only Barack Obama's victory, but also for the defeat of anti-undocumented immigrant
congressional candidates in Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico.
In southern New Mexico, for example, Democrat Harry
Teague beat Republican Ed Tinsley for a US House seat long associated with the GOP. Teague overcame Tinsley by healthy margins
in the US-Mexico border counties of Luna and Dona Ana, both places with a large number of immigrant residents.
In nearby El Paso, Texas, another entity with a huge immigrant population, no Republican won election to any state
or local office.
While Latino and immigrant voters veered toward the left on economic and immigration issues in 2008,
many steered toward the right on social issues. Latino and new immigrant voters backed gay marriage bans in California and
Florida, according to preliminary reports. Otherwise, the landscape is hauntingly bleak for the Republican Party in US immigrant
communities.
Speaking to reporters along with Bendixen and Hoyt, another prominent immigrant advocate said anti-immigrant
stances seriously damaged the Republican Party's prospects in a community where it was beginning to make serious headway in
2004.
"I think they are in a tough spot", said Frank Sharry, executive director of America's Voice. "It's not clear
to me the Republicans have gotten the message."
In Sharry's view Republicans will have to disassociate themselves
from "anti-immigrant extremists that have hijacked most of the party," while Democrats will have to deliver immigration and
other reforms favored by new immigrant voters if the party is to consolidate its new base among this segment of the electorate.
Separately
quoted in the Mexican press, Hoyt said the Illinois Coalition would celebrate Obama's triumph but insist that at least an
immigration reform plan emerge within the first 100 days of the new president's inauguration.
Janet Murguia, president
and CEO of the National Council of La Raza, took a like-minded view. "The Latino community demonstrated in this election that
we are engaged in the democratic process; more than 10 million Latino voters mobilized throughout the country to vote," Murguia
said in a statement. "This demonstrates our eagerness to work in partnership with this administration to address key concerns
like the economy, healthcare and immigration reform."
On the immigration front, additional pressures on the Obama administration
are certain to emanate from migrant-sending nations like El Salvador and Mexico. In similar economic doldrums as the US, such
nations are likely to argue that comprehensive immigration reform will achieve not only a measure of justice for immigrants,
but also provide a modicum of economic stability for US neighbors dependent on migrant remittances.
"We have maintained
a position of insisting on the importance of having an immigration reform," Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinoza told
the press on the eve of Obama's election. "There should [be] an immigration reform and recognition of the contributions
that Mexican migrants make to the US society and economy."
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Additional
sources: National Council of La Raza, November 7, 2008. Press statement. Norte, November 6, 2008. Article by Luis Carlos Ortega.
Americaspolicy.org, November 7, 2008. Article by Tom Barry. Univision, November 6 and 9, 2008. America's Voice, November 5,
2008. Press release. La Jornada/Reuters, November 3 and 5, 2008. El Universal/Notimex. November 5, 2008. Albuquerque Journal, November 5, 2008. Newspapertree.com, November 4, 2008. KUNM-FM (Albuquerque),
October 27, 2008.
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Frontera NorteSur (FNS)
Center for Latin American and Border Studies
New Mexico State University
Las Cruces, New Mexico
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Reprinted with authorization from Frontera NorteSur, a free, on-line, U.S.-Mexico border news source.
Translation FNS
