Monday, November 3, 2008

Who are Mexicans rooting for in the U.S. Election?

By Allan Wall

Here we are on the verge of Election Day, 2008, pitting Democrat Barack Obama against Republican John McCain.  Who are Mexicans rooting for?

Well, polling has been taken among Mexicans, asking their opinions on the election, since the primary season.  A poll reported in March by El Universal (Mexico’s paper of record) inquired which of the candidates still in the running – John McCain, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama – would be better for Mexico.  In that poll, Hillary got 41% of the vote, Obama had 27%, and John McCain got 8%.

Hillary was eventually defeated, leaving the contest between John McCain and Barack Obama.  The polling indicates that, of those Mexicans who have an opinion on the matter, Obama is beating McCain. 

The candidacy of Barack Obama has stirred much of interest worldwide. The Gallup polling group has been polling internationally, asking for preferences in the U.S. election.  From May to September of this year they polled in 70 countries (which represent almost 50% of the world’s population). Of those polled, 30% would prefer Obama winning the election, with 8% preferring McCain.  If you add both figures together you only get 38%, which is because 62% of those polled had no opinion on the matter!  

As Gallup reported, another question in the poll was this: “World citizens are more divided over whether the outcome of the U.S. election makes a difference to their country, with 31% saying it does and 21% saying it does not. Moreover, 49% of those surveyed did not have an opinion.”

In other words, a lot of people in the world really don’t care.  But of those who have a preference, Obama beats McCain.

Gallup polled in Mexico and asked the question, “Who would you personally rather see elected president of the United States?”  Of those polled, 27% preferred an Obama victory and 9% a McCain victory, while a majority (64%) did not know or refused to answer.  In contrast, in Canada, Obama won a clear majority (67%), McCain got 22%, and only 11% didn’t know or refused to answer.  According to Gallup, “In Mexico, the ratio of supporters between the two candidates is similar at 3-to-1 in favor of Obama; unlike Canadians however, most Mexicans – 63% – do not venture an opinion at all.”

And, reports Gallup, “…only 34% [of Mexicans polled] feel the U.S. election outcome will make a difference to their country, while 37% say it will not. Among Canadians, three-fourths say U.S. residents’ choice of president will make a difference to Canada, while just 22% disagree.” 

A poll published in mid-October by El Universal posed this question to Mexicans: “If you could vote in the next election to choose the president of the United States, for which candidate would you vote?” Obama won a plurality of 33%, McCain had 8%, 15% of the respondents responded with “Nobody,” 11% said they wouldn’t vote, and 33% said they didn’t know. 

A BBC poll was published in September, which had surveyed 22,500 people in 22 countries.  Obama had 49%, while McCain received 12% of the vote.  Of the Mexicans interviewed in that poll, 54% preferred Obama and 16% McCain.

There has been some interesting commentary among the Mexican punditry regarding the election taking place north of the border.

One opinion/analysis piece was so euphoric it was entitled “Obama: The Hope of Latin America.”  In contrast, another was entitled “Obama Fox,” likening Obama (in a negative fashion) to Vicente Fox, Mexico’s previous president.

One Mexican editorial’s spin is that the U.S. and Mexico are becoming so intertwined economically, culturally and demographically, that it doesn’t really matter to Mexico who wins.

Election-related issues discussed in Mexico include immigration, trade and drug trafficking.

The positions of Obama and McCain on immigration are nearly identical. They both say they want a secure border, and they both want amnesty. 

On trade, there has been some trepidation in Mexico about Obama’s North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, skepticism. 

On drug trafficking, one Mexican analyst has pointed out that “neither of the candidates has spoken of the size of the narco in [the U.S.,] nor of the effort to reduce the consumption of drugs, alter its distribution and to fight its penetration among [U.S.] police.”

John McCain was born in Latin America (Panama Canal Zone).  However, throughout the region (not only Mexico) most people are indifferent as to who wins the election. But among those who have opinions, Obama beats McCain.

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Allan Wall resides in Mexico and teaches at a university.  His website is located at www.allanwall.net.