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Column 092908 Thompson

Monday, September 29, 2008

Mexico and the USA in the War against Drugs and Violence

By Barnard R. Thompson

On September 23, while in New York City to participate in activities connected with the opening of the sixty-third session of the United Nations General Assembly, Mexican President Felipe Calderón was the keynote speaker at a dinner hosted by the Foreign Policy Association.  And, according to Mexican news reports, he told guests, "We are paying a high price due to the consumption of drugs in the United States; we are facing a common problem and we need a joint solution."

President Calderón also acknowledged that the drug related crime and violence along the international border is a threat to the security of not only Mexico but the United States as well – a fact that seems beyond question.

Something the president should have added, however, which regrettably is making matters worse nationally, is that Mexico is experiencing a serious upsurge of its own in the consumption of drugs.  Certainly less than the use of unlawful drugs in the United States, but rising levels that are alarming unto themselves.

In mid-September Mexico's Secretary of Health, José Ángel Córdova Villalobos, announced some of the preliminary results from the "2008 National Addictions Survey," figures that illustrate the mounting trend.

According to Córdova, from 2002 to 2008 the total number of persons in Mexico addicted to an illegal drug rose 51 percent, going from 307,000 individuals to 465,000.  As for non-addicts who have tried one drug or another, the total went from 3.5 million in 2002 to 4.5 million persons in 2008, an increase of 28.9 percent in six years.

The estimated population of Mexico is 109,955,400 people, whereas the U.S. population is 303,824,640 (The World Factbook, CIA, July 2008 estimate).

In the United States, in 2007 there were an estimated 6.9 million people 12 or older categorized with abuse of or dependence on illicit drugs, an estimate that has gone unchanged from 2002 to 2007 according to the September 2008 published "National Survey on Drug Use and Health" (NSDUH) of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

In 2007, the NSDUH reports, an estimated 19.9 million Americans aged 12 or older were illicit drug users.  It goes on to say, that while there are still too many people using drugs, current use is roughly one-half of the 14 percent at its peak in 1979.  From 2002 to 2007 the figure was down 18 percent.

The Mexican survey indicates that between 2002 and 2008 the use of illegal drugs, by people between 12 and 65 years of age, went from 4.6 percent to 5.5 percent.

Moreover, 43 percent of those between the ages of 12 and 25 are exposed to drugs, especially marijuana, and schools are where this usually happens, the Secretary added.

Córdova voiced alarm regarding the "great vulnerability of youth between the ages of 12 and 17."  There is a 68 times greater probability of adolescents using marijuana, when given the opportunity, then those who are older.  And they are also the ones who, in greater numbers, graduate to dependency, the Secretary said.  Blaming many factors, he spelled out greater supply, easier access, and more permissiveness in the use of legal drugs.

Regarding marijuana, 52 percent of the users started before they were 18 years of age; whereas 32 percent of cocaine users began prior to turning 18.

The NSDUH study, using one year change figures in the United States, cites a past month drop in cocaine use among young adults of 23 percent, from 2.2 percent to 1.7 percent between 2006 and 2007.  The past month use of methamphetamine dropped 33 percent, from 0.6 percent to 0.4 percent between 2006 and 2007.

While 4.6 Mexican males use drugs in comparison to each female, concern is expressed for the faster growth of drug use among women, which went from 0.9 to 2 percent.  Córdova noted that 13 percent of those who have tried drugs go from experimentation to frequent use, which is the same for both sexes.  However 2 percent of the men go on to dependency, whereas only 1.2 percent of the women do so.

The 2008 National Addictions Survey listed marijuana as the most used illegal substance in Mexico, its preference having gone from 3.8 percent in 2002 to 4.4 percent in 2008.  Cocaine has moved into second place, having almost doubled from 1.3 percent in 2002 to 2.5 percent in 2008.  Inhalants have fallen to third [0.7 percent]; followed by methamphetamines [0.5 percent]; hallucinogens [0.4 percent]; and heroin [0.2 percent].

Secretary Córdova went on to say that tobacco and alcohol are often the legal drugs (sic) that serve as a threshold to others that are illegal.  As an example, he said that 14.7 percent of those who begin smoking before they are 18 go on to marijuana, and 7.9 percent to cocaine.

While in New York, President Calderón also said: "My government seeks to improve cooperation between the United States and Mexico in order to fight drug trafficking and organized crime, and if we want to win this war we must work together as partners."

The president added that it is imperative for Mexico and the United States to find new ways to improve teamwork in the fight against drugs, arms trafficking and money laundering.  Regarding legal sales of firearms in the United States, he said this represents a problem for Mexico where they are taken and used by criminals.  Last year his government seized 14,000 weapons of different calibers and 50,000 shells, most having come from the United States, he said.

Meanwhile, back home (and during his absence), Calderón's Secretary of Public Safety, Genaro García Luna, made a summons called appearance before the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Mexico's bicameral Congress.  During his appearance, according to the Mexico City daily El Universal, Deputy Layda Sansores of the small Convergence Party (18 members in the 500-member Chamber) asked García to think about an eventual legalization of drugs as an alternative to the fight against organized crime.

In response, García said, "'we have studied (the problem) with European (countries),' and a decision of this kind 'must be the subject of a permanent assessment.'  The Secretary said, regarding a debate on the legalization or not of drugs, [Mexico's] Congress is the specific forum."

By week's end members of two relatively insignificant parties, the Social Democratic Party (Alternativa) and the Labor Party (with but 16 seats combined in the Chamber of Deputies), were calling for congressional hearings.  According to the newspaper La Jornada, on September 27, spokespersons for the two parties of little clout now insist: "The time has come to open public debate on the legalization of drugs."

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Barnard Thompson, editor of MexiData.info, has spent 50 years in Mexico and Latin America, providing multinational clients with actionable intelligence; country and political risk reporting and analysis; and business, lobbying, and problem resolution services.