Monday, May 10, 2004

 

Mexico 2006 — Three Latin American experiences

 

By Enrique Andrade González

 

The new relationship between the President of the Republic and the Mexican Congress is a subject that will have to be debated in Mexico prior to the 2006 elections.  Ever since the fall of the presidential system — that was backed by a single state party (the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI), the failure of the two branches of government to come to agreement has been the principle sign of this first stage of Mexican democratic transition.

 

According to Mexico’s main vote projection surveys, in 2006 the congress will predominantly include the three main political parties (the PRI, the National Action Party and the Democratic Revolution Party), each with about 30 percent representation.  As well, projections are that the next president will be elected by less than 50 percent of the constituency, with a vote of 34 to 40 percent.

 

The next president will head a political minority government, with support of a party that will only hold one-third of the seats in congress.  As such, if the current constitutional rules prevail the next president will not succeed in getting reforms passed that are necessary to carry out the government’s programs, nor will he or she be able to deliver on campaign promises.

 

Among the proposals that are starting to be discussed, constitutional reforms have to be highlighted.  This is because the next president will be forced to form an alliance with congress in order to ensure a legislative majority and to sustain governance.

 

The key is probably in the degree of trust and confidence that congress grants to the new chief executive and his cabinet.  As a comparison, the Constitution of Peru provides a vote of confidence to the president and his cabinet by the Peruvian congress for their first 30 days in office.  As such, the congress is bound to support some policies set forth by the executive branch of government through the President of the Council of Ministers (the cabinet functions as the council).  A vote of confidence in Peru is by simple majority, whereas the dismissal of a minister or the President of the Council of Ministers, for abuse of public trust, requires a competent majority (in Mexico a “competent majority” is two-thirds of a quorum).

 

With respect to Argentina, its Constitution includes the post of Chief of the Ministerial Cabinet.  The cabinet leader must appear before congress at least once a month to report on the state of the administration and to ask for implementation approval for emerging programs.  As well, when applicable the competent majority of congress can also censure programs and ask the president, or any minister, to resign.

 

In Venezuela, in accordance with its Constitution, the vice president of the Bolivarian Republic manages relations between the executive and legislative branches of government.  The unicameral National Assembly, with a competent majority of 60 percent of its members, can remove the vice president and request that the president appoint a replacement.

 

The new relationship between the Mexican president and congress will have to go through a constitutional examination, now that the dominant president system has come to an end.  And for any of the three candidates who could win the presidency in 2006 to achieve governance, they must have a vote of confidence from the new congress.  This with the principle public policies of the new government, and the reforms needed to fulfill its mandate, having been negotiated and agreed to by both branches of government.

 

Conversely, the next president will have to assume the natural consequences of a possible loss of confidence by congress, along with the change in interlocutors for understandings between the branches of government that could occur.

 

The system change in Mexico is needed in order to guarantee governance, and to keep free elections from being managed by government maneuvers.  The current political actors, in this first stage of transition, must meet their main, historical and perhaps exclusive roles which means allowing the second transition government, that will take office in late 2006, to make democracy an effective tool for all citizens.

 

Any of the three main parties could head the next government, so the moment is now here for the three parties to share the same concern — by winning the presidency, how to obtain governance?

 

The cost of failure to accomplish the reforms during this legislative period could harm the country by producing years of political disagreement and scandals, during which time the biggest losers of all would be the politicians and their parties.

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Enrique Andrade González (a www.mexidata.info columnist) is a senior official with the office of the Presidency of the Republic, in Mexico City.  Lic. Andrade, an attorney who received his LL.M. in Constitutional and Protection (“Amparo”) Law from the Universidad Iberoamericana, is also a law professor at the Universidad Intercontinental.  His e-mail address is eandrade65@yahoo.com.mx.