Monday, February 25, 2008

Guatemala in the Middle Between Washington and Caracas

By Sam Logan

·         As his first month in office comes to a close, Guatemala's new president, Alvaro Colom, maintains a fine balance between what his country needs and what Washington and Caracas want.

When Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom was inaugurated on 14 January, he became the country's first president from the political left in over 50 years, the last leftist leader, Jacobo Arbenz, having been ousted by a CIA-organized coup de e'tat in 1954. But Colom does not see Washington as a threat, nor does he seek to supplant the needs of his administration to Washington's desire.

While free trade, immigration and security are three main issues he will seek to work out with Washington, a fundamental need for preferential energy prices has brought him to Hugo Chavez's doorstep.

Balanced thus between the US and Venezuela, Colom has become the next Central American president, after Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, presented with opportunities from opposite sides of the political spectrum.

Colom knows that 97 percent of the 1.3 Guatemalans that live abroad work in the US, sending home billions in remittances every year. He also realizes that since the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) entered into force in 2006, Guatemalan exports to the US have grown 20 percent annually.

There is also a matter of security. In the past five years, some 25,700 Guatemalans have been murdered according to government statistics. In 2007, there were 4,500 murders, with the average just over 17 murders a day before Colom came into office. In a recent press conference, he announced that his administration had lowered that number to just over 15 murders a day, a drop in the bucket.

According to the Spanish news agency EFE, Guatemalan Interior Minister Vinicio Gomez said there were 18,744 members of the National Police tasked with public security across a county of some 13 million inhabitants. That's one policeman for every 2,400 civilians, and one for approximately every 21.77 square kilometers of land – a task he described as "humanly impossible" in the 14 February article.

Such dire straits is the principle reason why Guatemalans head north, creating a significant amount of remittances sent back to the country from the US every year, over US$4 billion in 2007. Many want favorable conditions for immigrants, but Colom's focus is on improving the situation inside the country so his countrymen are not forced to find a better life elsewhere.

At the top of this list is poverty reduction. Local NGOs claim that some 80 percent of Guatemalans live in poverty. The government claims a more conservative number, closer to 50 percent.

Colom has promised to add 700,000 jobs, build 200,000 houses and slash poverty by 20 percent during his administration. These are admirable goals, but not likely a reality unless he receives outside financing or some sort of World Bank-styled development package to at least build the houses. Poverty reduction and jobs can be built over time, but Colom needs economic growth, likely to be spurred by increased trade with the US.

Saving money on energy is also at the top of Colom's list, and he has received multiple offers from Venezuelan President Chavez to join Venezuela's PetroCaribe initiative. Yet Colom is wary of joining Chavez's camp. He is a moderate, and while interested in closing the gap between Guatemalan and other leftist-leaning countries in the region, he is mindful of his relationship with Washington.

Perhaps the best indication of Colom's position vis-à-vis Chavez can be found in a recent statement: "You can't be legal in your own country and accept illegality in another." He mentioned no names or situations, but most agree he was referring to Chavez's support of the Colombian insurgency led by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

Colom has said he would consider joining PetroCaribe, likely the best source of cheap gas for Guatemala, but he was careful to add that he would consult with his country's business elite first. This business acumen and closeness to his commercial community runs deep, as Colom has spent many years managing textile factories.

Chavez and others who may argue that Colom is keen to jump into Venezuela's camp should consider that the Guatemalan president likely has more to lose than gain by making any decision that will distance himself from Washington. It is his best source of funding for security, a place that pulls the levers controlling free trade, and the meeting place of the men and women who may in the future decide to fund development projects that will fulfill the "social" in Colom's social democratic approach to governance.

When delivering the results of the first month of his administration, Colom admitted to his listeners that things had been rather tough. The new president has many challenges ahead – not the least of which are security and energy. It will be interesting to watch how he manages the balance between what his country needs and what leaders in Caracas and Washington want.

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This article was originally published at ISN Security Watch (02/21/08).  The International Relations and Security Network (ISN) is a free public service that provides a wide range of high-quality and comprehensive products and resources to encourage the exchange of information among international relations and security professionals worldwide.

Sam Logan is an investigative journalist who has reported on security, energy, politics, economics, organized crime, terrorism and black markets in Latin America since 1999. He is a senior writer for ISN Security Watch.  For issues related e-books go to www.samuellogan.com/publications.htm.

Reprinted with permission from ISN.