Monday, February 18, 2008

 

Is Immigration Genuinely a Presidential Campaign Issue?

 

By Carlos Luken

 

Unless something unexpected happens during both the Democratic and Republican conventions, it appears clear that each contender will have a soft and moderate stance on immigration.

 

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain seem to favor immigration reform, and they will probably cater to Latino community delegates in order to push them over the top in their respective party conventions, and in the November vote.

 

It is not surprising that Mexican President Felipe Calderon decided to make his first official tour of the United States last week, when party campaigns are gearing up to their final candidate selection, and with the immigration issue weighing heavily in delegate rich Texas and the industrial states. His timing was impeccable.

 

During his U.S. tour, Calderon was eagerly greeted in most forums attended and he received favorable media coverage.

 

Upon his return to Mexico, President Calderon and most Mexican officials were buoyant in their expectations for a better frame of mind to settle the ongoing conflict once President George W. Bush leaves office, regardless of the winner of the presidential election.

 

Although there may be reason to expect a more positive attitude at the negotiation table, Mexico and the Latino community should acknowledge past experiences and realize that all current presidential contenders (and the eventual president-elect) will be pressured into hardening their stance by a still powerful and loud conservative electorate in each party. These conservatives and anti-immigration pundits can sway policy through their votes in the presidential campaign itself, or through the election of lawmakers that may revise, amend or even block legislation favoring the softening of immigration.

 

Aside from wishful thinking, there is little reason to celebrate the possibility or expectation of having any important changes in U.S. policy regarding immigration; the original circumstances have not changed, in fact they have worsened and become bigger. Through complacency and bias patronizing politicians turned a local economic setback with a regulated solution into a large and uncontrollable international crisis.

 

The thousands of temporary workers that were encouraged to come in the 1940’s and 1950’s, to compensate for the absent workforce serving in the armed forces, were misplaced and left unchecked. In time the solution turned into the problem, and in passing decades the problem became a crisis.

 

The millions of immigrants currently living and working in the United States are now considered offensive by industrial, agro-business and most union workers. Migrants (willing to sacrifice wages and benefits) are aggressively and successfully competing for the small number of jobs that a shrinking economy creates. Strangely, migrants are also blamed for the jobs that are being sent abroad.  In any case, despite their diminishing numbers labor unions will influence the candidates (mainly in the Democratic Party where they have traditionally been influential).

 

Aside from major industrial and farming states, candidates will also be pressured to accommodate the conservative sectors (and delegates) from border states. Border residents, although with Latino majorities, have felt that communities are unable to provide the infrastructure and social services needed because of their growth. Many residents are also concerned by the rising wave of crime and violence along the Mexico-U.S. border and the impact on their communities.

 

Other conservatives are more troubled with rising taxes, and the increase in social agendas will pressure candidates to reduce spending and aid programs. Many of these voters may be unconcerned with the immigration issue but will decide to vote between the conservative-liberal policies. Those that do will most likely favor candidates with more conservative views and thus indirectly influence immigration reform.

 

They will also consider radical demands by vocal minorities.

 

All these idiosyncrasies directly or indirectly shape the opposition to immigration reform, and it is evident that as the concerns remain unresolved the questions will also go unanswered.

 

In what is shaping up to be one of the closest and most divisive presidential elections in some time, all candidates will be hard pressed to gain across the board support from every segment of the political spectrum. I doubt that any candidate will commit themselves to one group or another. They will follow the age old political practice of trying to gain votes by condescending with both sides of the issue. And they all know that although the Latino community is the largest growing minority, it is not the largest voting minority.

 

Clearly the biggest challenge both Republicans and Democrats face in winning the presidency is to leave their conventions with a unified party candidate. It will be interesting to see what choices they make.

 

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Carlos Luken, a MexiData.info columnist, is a Mexico-based businessman and consultant.