Monday, February 11, 2008
Will the
US Hispanic Vote Go Republican in 2008?
By Rosa Martha
Villarreal
As I watched the election returns for the February
5th California primary, one thing became very clear: the Hispanic vote was the deciding factor in Senator Hillary
Clinton’s victory. The Hispanic electorate, prodded by the ethnic baiting
of the immigration debate, constituted an astonishing 29% of the votes cast in the primary.
Senator Clinton’s popularity with the Hispanic (mostly Mexican American) electorate was unaffected even by the
iconic Kennedy family’s endorsement of Barack Obama.
Nevertheless, as the votes rolled in, Ari Fleischer,
President George W. Bush’s former press secretary, made the bold assertion on CNN that should the general election come
down to Senator John McCain and Senator Obama, the Republicans not only had a chance to cut into the Democrats’ share
of the Hispanic vote in California, but to win it outright. Such a scenario in
California could very possibly win the state’s electoral votes for the Republicans and doom any possibly of an Obama
presidency.
Despite the efforts of many pundits to cast Senator
Obama’s lack of connection with Hispanic voters as a “black-brown” divide, in a head to head match-up the
appeal of Senator McCain would have virtually nothing to do with race and more to do with McCain’s character and record,
historical trends in the native born population, and the experiences of newly naturalized Hispanics with politics in their
home communities.
First of all, even before the recent increases in
immigration and naturalization, Hispanic Americans have had a strong relationship with the U.S. military, particularly the
Marines and the Navy. I do not know of a single Mexican American family who has
not had an immediate relative serve in the military. Since World War II in particular, there has been a deep sense of pride
to give one’s service to “la patria.” Senator McCain’s distinguished service record and his tribulations as a prisoner of war resonate
at a spiritual level with the Hispanic community, especially since so many of the our young men served in Vietnam, a morally
complex war. For all of Senator Obama’s youthful appeal and eloquence,
he will find it difficult to combat the Vietnam-era images of Senator McCain as a POW.
Next, although Senator Obama has consistently
taken a sympathetic position on the question of illegal immigrants, Mr. McCain has been a more visible leader and, more importantly,
has vigorously resisted in engaging in ethnic baiting for the purpose of gaining votes, even if it meant alienating the right
wing of his party. Even as Mr. McCain asserts that he has heard the public’s
wishes on securing the border, he maintains a compassionate position on the plight of illegal immigrants while refraining
from gross pandering such as offering driver’s licenses to the undocumented.
In a cultural context, Senator McCain possesses
the Hispanic male virtues of stubborn integrity, virility, and courage. And while
those opposed to Mr. McCain may argue that he has failed the Hispanic community because his efforts on immigration reform
have been unsuccessful, Hispanics have worshipped even failed leaders such as the Mexican revolutionary general Emiliano Zapata,
who knowingly walked into his own ambush and subsequent assassination, and even the deposed Emperor Maximilian von Habsburg
who, upon facing the firing squad, not only refused a blindfold but opened up his coat to receive the volley.
For many of the recently naturalized citizens,
their own experiences with politics in their home communities may prejudice their perceptions of Senator Obama. His penchant
for beautiful oratory coupled with a short list of accomplishments resembles the profile of the politicians of the home country.
In contrast, President Clinton delivered the economic goods, and Senator Clinton articulates a concise game plan that will
immediately benefit the Hispanic community, such as mandatory health coverage for all versus the availability of affordable
care as Mr. Obama posits.
I have no doubt that Mr. McCain will win a respectable
share of the Hispanic vote in this election regardless of his opponent. However,
Mrs. Clinton would be a more formidable challenger for the Hispanic vote as she, like Senator McCain, has a highly respected
reputation in the community.
——————————
Rosa
Martha Villarreal is the author of The Stillness of Love and Exile and Chronicles of Air and Dreams. She is an adjunct professor at Cosumnes
River College in Sacramento, CA, and a member of PEN USA. She can be reached
via e-mail at rvillarreal@tertuliamagazine.com.
