Monday, July 14, 2003
A Mexican assessment of the July 6 elections
To give those interested a Mexican perspective on the mid-presidential-term
and other elections that took place on July 6, 2003, and what all of this may mean to the future — especially in view
of the 2006 presidential elections, the commentary piece below has been translated in its entirety. It should be noted that subsequent to the piece being published, early in the day July 13 announcements
added Sonora and Campeche to the as of this writing unofficial list of states where the Institutional Revolutionary Party
(PRI) won gubernatorial seats. With respect to Sonora, and a reported PRI lead
of less than 8,000 votes, the National Action Party (PAN) is expected to challenge the results.
(Edited translation by Barnard Thompson)
“More than a PRI advance, the PAN went backwards;
July 6 drew a
new political map of Mexico
“By Jorge A. Balam Díaz
“Challenges aside, should they proceed, the Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) is holding onto its predominance at every level of politics in Mexico: from state governorships
to mayoralties, from the federal to state legislatures. And with the ruling on
the elections of a week ago that the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) will announce today (Sunday), the PRI will hold onto
the majority of state governments: 16 (out of 31 states plus the Federal District, or D.F.).
As a result of the July 6 elections the PRI will govern 57.1 million people, up from 55.6 million currently.
“The dispute in Sonora is leaning in favor of a PRI that
is more emboldened by the PAN backslide than by its own advancements. In Campeche,
although the PRI candidate is moving forward, the last word has yet to be given.
“Besides those states, the PRI controls Coahuila, Colima,
Chihuahua, Durango, the State of Mexico, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Nuevo León, Oaxaca, Puebla, Quintana Roo, Sinaloa, Tabasco, Tamaulipas
and Veracruz.
“Of the 15 remaining states, the National Action Party (PAN)
governs nine: Aguascalientes, Baja California, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Nayarit, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí and Yucatán.
“Supported more than anything else by the López Obredor*
factor, the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) holds office in six entities: Baja California Sur, Chiapas, the Federal District,
Michoacán, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas.
“As for the Chamber of Deputies, at the conclusion of last
Friday’s count by the IFE regarding the final distribution of the 500 posts, the PRI has a clear majority with 224 seats. The PAN won 153; PRD 95; the Mexican Ecology Green Party (PVEM) 17; the Labor Party
(PT) six; and Convergence a scant five.
“The capital cities of the states also showed advances by
the people of the man from Tabasco, Roberto Madrazo Pintado (president of the National Executive Committee of the PRI): the
PRI governs 15 state capitals, the PAN 12 and the PRD four. Convergence controls
Oaxaca City.
“Alarms are going off in the PAN, largely because its main
defeats have now occurred in key presidential election entities, considering their large number of voters and electoral districts. For example, three years ago the Fox effect in the Federal District gave the Alliance
for Change wins in 24 of the 30 electoral districts. Last week the PAN won in
only three. In the State of Mexico, the PAN held onto only 13 of the 22 districts
it had won in 2000.
“The debacle continued in Jalisco, governed by PAN member
Francisco Javier Ramírez Acuña, where the party lost nine districts: it went from 16 to only seven. They even lost two districts in the PAN stronghold state of Guanajuato; and one in Morelos, another state
governed by the PAN. All the more, the PAN lost in the San Francisco del Rincón
district in Guanajuato, where President Vicente Fox has his San Cristóbal Ranch.
“As the well-known syndicated columnist Catón has said:
These elections were the mother of all opinion polls and the President lost.”
__________
* Andrés Manuel López Obredor, mayor of the Federal District.
