January 7, 2008
Water, Migration and Development Issues along the Mexican Border
Frontera NorteSur
The latest population estimates from Mexico's National Population Council (Conapo) project steady population growth
in the six northern Mexican border states through 2030. But in a region confronted with acute water supply and chronic
drought problems, as well as a host of other environmental challenges, the question immediately arises: How sustainable is
the growth?
According to Conapo, more than 25 million people will reside in the states of Baja California, Sonora,
Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas in 2030. If Conapo's projections prove accurate, the six-state total
will account for about one-fifth of Mexico's projected population of 127,205,586 people in 2030. Continuing with their historic
growth, the three largest northern Mexican border cities of Tijuana, Mexicali and Ciudad Juarez will nearly double their current
populations during the next 22 years. According to Conapo, Tijuana will grow to a city of 2,422,071 residents, Mexicali to
1,410,754 and Ciudad Juarez to 2,406,411. Another estimate for Ciudad Juarez recently cited in the city's Diario newspaper predicted the city will have 1,804,146 inhabitants in 2030.
Conapo's projected rate of
population growth for Ciudad Juarez is well below levels registered from 1980 to 1990 when the annual rate of population growth
averaged 3.56 percent per year. Coinciding with the first years of the North American Free Trade Agreement, Ciudad Juarez's
annual population growth averaged 4.34 percent in the decade of 1990-2000.
A classic city of migrants, Ciudad Juarez
drew its first population influx from the states of Chihuahua, Zacatecas, Coahuila and Durango. The city later attracted many
new residents from southern states including Veracruz, Oaxaca and Chiapas.
Conapo's projections assume a much
higher annual population growth than 2000-2005, years when many foreign-owned export plants shutdown or relocated elsewhere.
With jobs scarce, the population growth slowed to a yearly rate of 1.32 percent.
"Juarez is one of the points of concentration
of young populations because of the quantity of jobs that it generates," said Dr. Rodolfo Rubio Salas of El Colegio de la
Frontera Norte, "but it also suffers the effects when this activity is dependent on the international economic cycles."
To
put the numbers in perspective: In 1950, Ciudad Juarez was a city of 131,308 residents; by 2005, it had grown by ten times
to more than 1.3 million inhabitants.
Hosting a population of approximately 750,000 people, Mexicali, Baja California, highlights
the environmental challenges facing the entire border region to one degree or another. The city is subjected to winter
inversions, and many old, polluting US cars ply unpaved roads. In 2007, Mexicali saw more than 60 days in which particulate
matter (PM) levels exceeded the Mexican environmental standard. Mexicali produces 1,000 tons of garbage every day, and an
estimated 600,000 old tires stacked up on the Centinela hill provide a potential breeding ground for mosquitoes that could
transmit the West Nile virus and dengue.
"We occupy third place (nationally) in pollution," said Israel Camacho Gastelum,
Baja California delegate for the federal Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources. "Dust, discarded tires, automobile
and household batteries are some of the things that cause these troubles."
Water Woes
Almost across the board,
climate change scientists and other environmental experts point to drought and water scarcities as the future for northern
Mexico and the US border region. Talk of a "mega-drought" is even in the air. In Mexico, Victor Magaņa, a researcher
with the Center for Atmospheric Sciences at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), said climate change
might lead to 5 to 10 percent less rain by 2040, a decrease that could translate into between 10-20 percent less available
water for consumption. An estimated 55 percent of agricultural and 43 percent of urban water consumption in Mexico is already
lost due to excessive irrigation and leaks.
"If we add to this the serious problems of river and lake pollution,
it is clear that even with uncertainty it's urgent to seriously begin tackling this problem," Magaņa said.
In Mexico,
the annual amount of available water dropped from 11,500 cubic meters per resident in 1955 to 4,900 in 1999. Mexico's National
Water Commission estimates that the figure will plummet to 3,500 cubic meters annually by 2020. Already, in parts of Baja
California and the Rio Grande region, less than 2,500 cubic meters of water is presently available every year for each resident.
According to Mexico's National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics, the country is losing 6 billion cubic
meters of groundwater every year. Of Mexico's 653 aquifers, 104 are considered over-exploited, with 17 experiencing high levels
of saline intrusion – nine of which are situated on the Baja California peninsula.
"Without a doubt, the
continued tendency of unsustainable use of hydrological resources will be a limiting factor in economic development and social
equity," concluded Mexico's National Water Commission in a report last year.
Mexican border communities in the Mexicali
Valley and the Paso del Norte region rely on US water deliveries from the Colorado River and Rio Grande. Competition for Colorado
River water is fierce, with cities industrial users and farmers haggling over an increasingly valuable resource.
Drawn
from the Hueco aquifer, Ciudad Juarez's current supply of water is expected to expire within the next 20 years. The Chihuahua
state government recently announced a new massive water project that will pump new water from the Mesilla aquifer, a hydrological
resource for both Mexico and the US. Despite the declining water supplies, large-scale developments are on the drawing board
for both sides of the border like Jeronimo-Santa Teresa, a planned binational city of more than 100,000 people.
Some
observers question the practice of continually drilling for more water in the absence of stricter conservation and development
policies.
"Sustainable economic growth has to be viewed in the context of a physical space that has its limitations,"
said Jorge Salas-Plata, a professor and researcher at the Autonomous University of Ciudad Juarez. "While the availability
of housing and employment is certainly important, planning is needed so that things are done in harmony and equilibrium with
the physical space."
Although Ciudad Juarez is tapping into cross-border aquifers, nearby rural communities depend
on the Rio Grande for irrigation purposes. Up river, the Rio Grande's water, whose flow depends on the winter snow pack
of northern mountains, is entirely allocated in New Mexico. A recent study by University of New Mexico civil engineering professor
Julie Coonrod and New Mexico State University economist Brian Hurd warned that higher temperatures could lead to more water
evaporation, possibly resulting in a one-fourth drop of the river's average flow during the next 75 years. In Chihuahua and
Sonora, deserts are expanding and pushing rural communities to the brink.
The Wildcard of Climate Change
Of course, Conapo's population projections are based on demographic rates which are ultimately influenced by changing
economic and geographic forces. It's difficult to predict with certainty the nature or health of the border economy in 2030,
or the impacts of climate change elsewhere in Mexico and Central America that could send larger numbers of people to the Mexico-US
border. Riding a wave of tremendous growth, planners in northern Mexico
as well as on the US side of the border are contemplating expensive water desalinization plants as a way of sustaining the
economic boom.
On the other hand, persistent drought and dried up water supplies could send people fleeing both south
and north. Jorge Zavala of UNAM'S Center for Atmospheric Sciences speculates that border residents could be drawn to central
Mexico where water supplies might be more reliable.
"Without controlling global warming, the country will face a devastating
panorama within the next 25 years," said Luis Manuel Guerra, president of the Autonomous Institute for Ecological Research.
"It would not make sense to continue thinking about employment, security, health and education if we are in a devastated environment."
UNAM'S
Victor Magaņa said a sustainable water policy should focus on recharging aquifers and recuperating the environmental integrity
of surface water supplies. "This could result in a process of adaptation that would reduce our vulnerability to climate change
in the water sector," he said.
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Sources: San
Francisco Examiner/Associated Press, January 1, 2008. Norte, November 28, 2007 and December 31, 2007. Articles by Francisco
Lujan and Nohemi Barraza. La Jornada, February 10, 2007 and December 24, 2007. Articles by Angelica Enciso L. and Mike Davis.
El Universal, February 24, 2007; May 23, 2007; December 29, 2007. Articles by Julieta Martinez, Belen Merino, Rosa Maria Mendez.
El Diario de Juarez, March 22, 2007; November 18 and 21, 2007. Articles by Horacio Carrasco Sosa and the Reforma news agency. Albuquerque
Journal, October 23, 2007. Article by John Fleck.
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Frontera
NorteSur (FNS)
Center for Latin American and Border Studies
New Mexico State University
Las Cruces, New Mexico
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(Reprinted with authorization from Frontera NorteSur, a free, on-line, U.S.-Mexico border news source. FNS
can be found at http://frontera.nmsu.edu/)
Translation FNS
