Monday, March 1, 2004

The dinosaurs of Mexico are planning their reelections

By Carlos Luken

For the past months Mexico’s political system has resembled a submarine, one that is gradually sinking further from one political disgrace to another as it maneuvers an adventurous course in the uncharted waters of democracy.

New depths have been reached with the continuous uncovering of embarrassing news that in turn unsettles solid political institutions like the presidency, the congress and most political parties.

While some scandal weary Mexicans now question their good judgment in naively depositing their hopes for political transformation in Vicente Fox’s 2000 presidential victory, there is a group within the once supreme Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) that is benefiting from the confusion. And that group is apparently using the former as part of a strategy to regain power.

Referred to as “dinosaurs” and “dinos,” not just for their length of militancy but also for their aggressive approach to politics, the group is headed by party president Roberto Madrazo and allegedly sponsored by former president Carlos Salinas de Gortari.

This prehistoric grouping incorporates a strange concoction of party faithful, embracing former presidents, governors, bureaucrats, party leaders and their relatives. Although their backgrounds, experiences and educations are dissimilar, there are common denominators that allow the grouping — most are prosperous politicians, conservative hardliners who are committed to power and corruption, and consequently they are also rich and cynical.

Their main objective is to regain the lost status quo in order to replace Fox’s new democratic machinery with the old regime, which they perceive as superior.

With the hope of taking advantage of today’s circumstances, the dinosaurs are betting on the president’s loss of supremacy, on congressional chaos and on the opposition’s lack of credibility. Amazingly, they are also counting on election fair play regulations and organizations that have been put in place to curb electoral fraud and transgressions.

Being hard-nosed politicians in a survival struggle, they are pragmatists and they know that only boy scouts are expected to meet the election rules and regulations that cover campaign procedures and spending. Funding is not a problem, as the dinosaurs have the money to buy all the media time they want. As well, they are wisely using their boundless resources to finance campaigns to discredit the opposition vis-à-vis selling the PRI’s depreciated image.

Their funds and electoral expertise will also be handy on election days. Although the PRI’s grass root organizations have been reduced due to a lack of federal funds that used to filter their way via disguised government programs, most of the rural and community groups are still intact. Those organizations, when properly financed, have traditionally been the PRI’s most effective tool for electoral fraud in states and communities that rely heavily on the farm vote.

With the hope of rekindling old fires, Madrazo has designed and implemented a strategy that integrates businessmen and dinosaur politicians. By merging their resources, the PRI will make an all out effort to sell its candidates as the viable and experienced alternatives who are needed to gain social reforms.

As part of this strategy the PRI has reclaimed one if its more nefarious control instruments, the “dedazo” or touch selection, a past presidential attribute for selecting candidates on his sole authority. However without the presidency that power has gone to party president Madrazo who has single-handedly selected two Jurassic age candidates, dubbing their undemocratic, unopposed and already ratified selections “party unity nominations.”

Jorge Hank Rohn, the mayoral pre-candidate for Tijuana, was surprising. Jorge is the son of now deceased PRI icon Carlos Hank Gonzalez, who among other posts served in presidential cabinets and as mayor of Mexico City. Hank the father rose from the ranks of the teachers union to become one of Mexico’s most powerful figures. In the past Hank Rohn has kept out of the political limelight in Tijuana, where he has concentrated on managing his family’s Caliente Race Track, off track betting establishments and real estate developments.  Hank Rohn is seen as a dino offspring who will gamble his famous name to regain past glories.

Victor Cervera Pacheco, who is now running for mayor of Merida, was both unexpected and annoying. Cervera, a former Yucatan governor who managed to bargain and serve a second non-consecutive term as substitute governor — and later failed in a third attempt, is the personification of a “cacique,” or political boss. Being a former cabinet member and peasant leader, Cervera has control of the rural vote and the resources to procure an urban following in the PAN-leaning districts of the state capital.

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Carlos Luken (a www.mexidata.info columnist), a Mexicali, Baja California, based businessman, is the principal in I.L.C. Corporate Real Estate, a project development firm, and I.L.C. Corporate Services, a consulting practice that provides business management, consultancy and lobbying services to global corporations and government agencies. He can be reached via e-mail at ilc@computec.com.mx.