By Patrick Corcoran

The one thing Mexicans of all political stripes seem to be able to agree on is that President-elect Felipe Calderon, who removes the “elect” from his title on December 1, faces a very tough task.

Or rather, a catalog of tough tasks.

The list of issues confronting Calderon — entrenched monopolies, a woefully lagging oil industry, a porous tax code, impotent police forces — will require concerted action from the new leader, his cabinet, and the two houses of the Mexican congress. The latter’s feisty attitude impeded reform efforts during the presidency of Vicente Fox, and many expect it to continue to do so for the duration of Calderon’s sexennial. If Calderon’s administration hopes to avoid such a handicap, establishing a good rapport with congress is vital.

As damaging as another six years of inaction would be, there is ample reason to expect just that. Although Calderon’s National Action Party (PAN) enjoys a plurality in both houses of congress, it is far from a majority. To pass legislation, Calderon’s congressional allies must find common ground with one of the other two major seat-holders: the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), or the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).

Since the PRD’s standard-bearer (Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO) was defeated in the bitter contest that brought Calderon to power, there is little hope that the PRD will do anything other than block, block, block any piece of PAN legislation. AMLO’s parallel government has just gotten off the ground, and promises to be a constant critic of the new president.

The lack of interest in crossing party lines is childish and could be potentially very damaging to Mexico, but that’s politics. In any event, such a frosty relationship between the two parties is likely to last quite a while, if not all of Calderon’s six-year term.

That leaves the PRI as Calderon’s strongest potential ally. And there are a lot of reasons why a working relationship between the two groups makes sense.

The PRI, knocked from the presidency in 2000 for the first time in over 70 years, suffered another round of brutal defeats in the most recent elections, and the party needs a reason to be relevant again. There is not a large ideological gulf between the two parties; the PRI is the biggest of big-tent parties, and has a large contingent of business-friendly conservatives who are at home among the Panistas. Working with Calderon would be a good way to generate positive publicity and convince voters that the PRI can be trusted to run a modern presidency at some point in the future.

However, by voting with the PRD to block President Fox’s recent trip to Vietnam to attend an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting (Mexican presidents must have congressional permission to leave the country), the PRI showed that it has not overcome the pettiness that has plagued its positions for the past six years. PRI leaders say it was Fox’s planned stopover in Australia, where his pregnant daughter lives, after the summit that triggered the move. Regardless, it was a meaningless thumb in the eye to an outgoing president that made Mexico look bad internationally.

The PRI’s bad blood may be worsened by a recently released report by a commission investigating the so-called “dirty war” against leftist activists in the 1960s and 1970s. The special investigation, initiated by President Fox, says that three PRI presidents knew of extrajudicial killings and attacks on villages that harbored leftist sympathies, with the end result of several hundred people killed or disappeared. Fox has done his best to deflect attention away from the report, but the timing of its release could further inflame old grievances.

However there is some cause for optimism about Calderon.

Fox earned criticism from many people, Calderon among them, for his decision to use headhunters in the selection of his cabinet six years ago. The result was a group of great resumes with uncertain political skills and even shakier loyalties. Instead of forging alliances to advance the president’s agenda, cabinet-members publicly contradicted one other and even the president, making jaws drop with their political ineptitude.

Calderon’s recently announced economic cabinet indicates that he has learned from Fox’s missteps. The Secretary of Finance, Agustin Carstens, is a Chicago-trained economist with experience at the highest levels of national and international finance and politics.

Luis Tellez, Calderon’s designate as Secretary of Communications and Transportation is unusually qualified to transcend party differences. Tellez served as Chief of Staff of the President’s Office from 1994 to 1997, and then as Secretary of Energy under PRI President Ernesto Zedillo (1994-2000).

The remainder of the economic team is similarly credentialed, with professional as well as political experience.

Another potential piece of good news was the first legislative proposal emanating from Lopez Obrador’s shadow government. Rather than choosing something symbolic yet doomed to fail, like a US$100 monthly stipend for everyone over the age of 65 across the country, Lopez Obrador drafted a bill that would make life more difficult on Mexico’s monopolies — which was a point on Calderon’s campaign platform. The Competitive Pricing Law also dovetails nicely with Tellez’s introductory remarks about the need to weaken Mexico’s telecommunications behemoths. If it is a serious proposal, this could be just the sort of political success — i.e. one that allows multiple groups to claim credit — that paves the way for the heap of legislation that needs passing.

Does this one piece of legislation mean that the hatchet is buried, that there will be kisses and “I’m sorry” balloons? Of course not. But the PRD’s choice of legislation may indicate its willingness to be a truly loyal opposition, and to forge a functional, albeit cold, working relationship with the PAN.

Or, if the bill turns out to be unworkable, it may be a cynical ploy to lay the burden of inaction on the ruling party. Only time will tell.

So far Calderon’s every action seems to have been tailored to help Mexico’s political class recover from the wounds suffered in last summer’s election. But he cannot will a positive attitude onto congress. There must be a contingent of opposition representatives ready to overlook party differences and work with the new president.

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Patrick Corcoran, a MexiData.info guest columnist, is a writer who resides in Torreón, Coahuila. He can be reached at corcoran25@hotmail.com.