Monday, September 11, 2006

 

Calderon Won in Mexico – So What Will Follow?

 

By Allan Wall

 

On September 5th the long-awaited ruling of Mexico’s Federal Electoral Tribunal was handed down. In a unanimous decision, the seven-member court declared Felipe Calderon, of the National Action Party (PAN), the winner of the 2006 presidential election.

That should have laid the question to rest. Legally it did.

But losing candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), still refuses to accept defeat.  As well, he has condemned Mexico’s political institutions and promises a convention to choose an authentic president for Mexico (presumably that would be AMLO himself).

 

When Calderon went to the electoral court to pick up the official document declaring him the winner, he had to travel by helicopter to bypass AMLO’s followers who were deployed about the building.

 

AMLO’s allies in Congress are still standing shoulder-to-shoulder with him, and promising to prevent Calderon from taking office on December 1st.

 

All of these developments look rather ominous, almost as if they could undo the political progress Mexico has made in the past few decades, which would be a pity.  Yet there are other indications that things might not actually be as bad as all that. Certainly AMLO can cause a lot more trouble, but on the other hand people are getting tired of it – Mexico City residents especially.

 

Recent polling indicates that most Mexicans don’t approve of all that AMLO is doing. One poll even asked who people would vote for if the election were held now? In that poll Calderon beat AMLO by 20 percent.

 

This all indicates that AMLO’s antics are counter-productive.  Even other leaders of the PRD have to be wondering how long they have to follow Lopez Obrador regardless of where he goes.

 

Then there’s the “Mexico City Effect.”  The Mexican news media is overly concentrated in Mexico City, which the coverage reflects.  Both Mexicans and foreigners see constant coverage of the AMLO demonstrations in Mexico City, and this might lead one to believe that the whole country is falling apart. But it’s not falling apart.  Life in most of Mexico continues normally.

 

It’s no coincidence that most of the demonstrations are held in Mexico City. For one thing, they are assured of media coverage. Also, the government of Mexico City is headed up by an AMLO ally, who works hand in hand with him.

 

But let the PRD set up camps and block highways in Guadalajara or Monterrey and see how far they would get!

 

In one of their stunts, AMLO supporters took over toll booths in the Mexico City area, to let the motorists drive through without paying and “to make a statement.”  But when they tried that near Monterrey it didn’t work. After being forced through, motorists were returning to pay their fare.

 

So the AMLO followers gave up and left.

Lopez Obrador does not have the power to single-handedly turn Mexico upside down, especially if that is not what the rest of the country wants.

 

If one temporarily ignores the Lopez Obrador psychodrama, one has to admit that really the PRD has a lot to celebrate. The party is now the country’s second largest, which is no small achievement considering it was only founded in 1989.  The PRD has a solid hold on the Mexico City mayorship, which considering the Mexico City media factor is no small privilege.

 

So if it weren’t for their following AMLO down a path to nowhere, the PRD leadership could actually sit down and make a viable plan to leverage their congressional power during the next three years.

In contrast, the PRI, after being battered and beaten in the 2006 elections, is realistically looking at its situation and positioning itself as a kingmaker in the new Mexican Congress.  That’s an astute strategy for a party that lost its hold on power, and then slipped all the way down to third place.  With effective leadership and a still extensive national network, the PRI could be effective in the new Congress.

 

And, Felipe Calderon is the man who really has no choice but to deliver. He needs to significantly boost economic growth in ways that will improve the lot of Mexicans living in poverty. If he can’t do that, the PRD should win the 2012 elections by a landslide.

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Allan Wall, a MexiData.info columnist, recently returned from a tour of duty in Iraq.  He currently resides in Mexico, where he has lived since 1991. He can be reached via e-mail at allan39@prodigy.net.mx.