Monday, August 14, 2006
Loss of Official Funds Could
Be AMLO’s Waterloo
By Enrique Andrade González
Members of Mexico’s Federal Electoral Tribunal
(TRIFE), following charges filed by the For the Good of All coalition of Andrés Manuel López Obrador,
made an historic decision on August 6. Regarding the complaints submitted, that
also call for a total recount of ballots cast in the presidential election of July 2, the seven electoral court judges ruled
in favor of a partial recount of 11,839 polling stations, from 149 of Mexico’s 300 electoral districts. The districts in question are located in 26 of Mexico’s 31 states and Federal District, and federal
judges and magistrates are leading the actual counting of the more than 3 million ballots.
In announcing their opinion, the judges gave an ample
explanation of Mexico’s electoral processes, as well as the procedures followed by citizen-led entities that counted
the votes after the balloting on Election Day. In outlining the procedures in
each part of the process, which provide each stage with guarantees, they pointed out the permanent presence at each poll of
participating political party or coalition members who had the right to challenge any possible irregularities.
The Tribunal acknowledged the possibility of mistakes
being made on tally sheets, and in the spirit of total certainty regarding the results the judges said that possible errors
justify new counts in Electoral Districts where legitimate complaints had been lodged, which are authorized by law however
the recounts cannot be done by the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) itself.
This exception by the electoral authority thus makes
it possible, jurisdictionally, for the count to be done through the judicial procedure.
However the Tribunal could not order the recount at all polling stations in Mexico’s 300 districts, because the
coalition petitioner did not file complaints against the results in all districts, only those in 230 of the 300 total.
Moreover, causes for nullification of the election
such as inequity in the campaign, or federal government intervention in the election, would not affect the criteria and conduct
of electoral functionaries at the time the ballots were counted, so such charges are subsequently assessed.
The ordered vote recount responds to a flaw in electoral
authority, and it was court imposed because in the opinions of some there was the possibility of mistakes having been made
on tally sheets. However if any errors detected, in the judgment of the TRIFE,
do not indicate a deliberate act, and when added together they do not rise to the level that would change the final outcome
of the election, the partial recount review will be sufficient in order to pass on to the next step.
The Tribunal has until August 31 to resolve the petitions
filed, and it is thusly studying the validity of the election and the declaratory pronouncement of president-elect. And during this time and these deliberations there are two results that seem most probable.
First, the Tribunal will declare the election valid
and Felipe Calderón will be named president-elect of Mexico. Or second, the Tribunal
will nullify the election, and thus enters in the assumption of a provisional president named by Congress.
Remembering the repeated refusals of López Obrador,
AMLO, and the For the Good of All coalition to accept the validity of official decisions, the parties’ options following
the TRIFE ruling will be to follow the legal course, take possession of their congressional seats, and continue the role as
a serious and institutional opposition. Or they can break with the rule of law
and become a group outside the law.
The price of illegality could mean, to the PRD and
its coalition partners, the Workers Party and Convergence for Democracy, loss of official registration as national political
parties – which represents income of more than US$40 million annually. Plus
putting their followers at risk of being arrested for committing crimes against the security of the nation for lawbreaking
and disrupting public order.
They cannot be part of the government and also against
its institutions, and to refuse to acknowledge the definitive decision of the TRIFE could represent a sudden loss to the national
economy that no one will be prepared to pay.
During these remaining days of August, and the silence
of the TRIFE magistrates who will resolve 174 pending complaints, it would be a good time for all involved – candidates,
parties and the government – to think about just what should be done for the good of all.
Enrique Andrade, a Mexico City-based attorney and business consultant, writes a weekly
column for MexiData.info. He can be reached via e-mail at enriqueag@andradep.com.
